The Perfect Pickup: Seattle Mariners

It’s no secret that the Mariners need some power. The big question is where they’re going to get it. The Mariners were last in the league in ISO at .104, and didn’t fare well in the more traditional metrics either, finishing last in home runs and slugging percentage.


The Mariners go into the offseason with two gaping holes to fill in their lineup. First of all, they will likely need a leftfielder to compliment Gutierrez in center and Ichiro in right. Michael Saunders led the team in starts in LF, with 77, but Saunders simply didn’t produce the kind of offensive numbers the Mariners will look for in a corner outfielder. Saunders has been on the M’s prospect radar for quite a while, but at 23 (he turns 24 next week), he needs to start turning his massive potential into tangible results if he wants to lock down a position in Seattle’s starting lineup. 0.3 WAR in 100 games this season simply doesn’t cut it. While Seattle has been said to be a potential player in the Carl Crawford sweepstakes, they’ll have a hard time bidding against high-budget teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, and Angels without expanding payroll past their means. My guess would be that they eventually are priced out of the market and are forced to look elsewhere for help.


The other main area of concern is behind the plate, where the Mariners tried out five candidates last season and still don’t have a grasp of who their starting backstop should be. Rob Johnson (61 games) and Adam Moore (59) got the lion’s share of the at-bats, but Johnson failed to break the Mendoza line, hitting .191 with a .261 wOBA, and Moore fared even worse, batting .195 and managing only a .224 wOBA that was the third worst in baseball among players with more than 200 at bats. Moore still has a bit of prospect potential, especially in the power department, but at this point the Mariners’ future behind the plate looks pretty grim.


For this reason, I’m going to say that the Mariners need to pick up a catcher with some power who can plug the hole at the position for the foreseeable future. They’re looking for a guy who can step in and produce from Opening Day, and as a team looking to reload after a disappointing year, they’ll be looking to keep their draft picks as much as possible.


As I’ll write about later in this series, I think Victor Martinez goes elsewhere. He’ll be expensive and would cost the Mariners a pick, assuming the Sox offer arbitration and he turns it down. The other Type A’s at catcher are Ramon Hernandez and AJ Pierzynski, but I don’t expect either to generate too much interest from a team like the Mariners. For me, the best fit for the M’s would be former Blue Jay John Buck. Buck hit 20 longballs in 118 games last season, so he could provide a much-needed boost in the power department. Buck’s .208 ISO from last season would be a more than 100-point improvement on the .101 Seattle got from behind the plate last season, and his .345 wOBA would outpace the Mariners’ catchers’ .250 by nearly that much. Buck is only 30, so while many executives might have issues with signing an older catcher to a long-term deal because catchers tend to break down earlier than players at other positions, this wouldn’t be a huge concern. Additionally, he’s a type B free agent because he didn’t get as many starts as many other catchers (his thumb was injured after it was hit by a foul tip. Not the type of thing that seems likely to become a recurring problem), so he wouldn’t cost the Mariners a pick.


Last year was a large jump in production for Buck, and I don’t think you can expect the same numbers from him next year. However, I think he’ll get pretty close, and while his defense behind the plate, strike zone discipline, and OBP abilities are suspect, the power is there. As long as the Mariners don’t pay for his 2010 production, and instead make a reasonable estimate of his abilities going forward, they should be getting a guy who will fit into the lineup and provide the pop they sorely need.


Buck was an All-Star in 2010, and it seems like he’ll probably end up signing for somewhere in the $4 mil per year for two or three years range. That’s very affordable for a catcher who can mash and has experience handling young pitching staffs, as Buck did in Toronto. Buck would be a great value buy for the Mariners and fill one of their biggest needs for the next few years, without costing a pick. For these reasons, Buck is the Mariners’ Perfect Pickup.

The Perfect Pickup: Pittsburgh Pirates

In this series, we’ll look at free agent pickups that would fit into each team’s budget, needs, and overall organizational goals. We’ll start at the bottom (by regular season record), with the Pirates, and go through each of the teams as we look at deals that could work out well for both team and player.

The Pirates have a strong offensive core, but one glaring problem. They were second to last in the league in outfield defense by UZR, with a –24.9 last season. A large factor in this is that their centerfielder of the future, Andrew McCutchen, hasn’t been much of a centerfielder. McCutchen put up a –14.4 UZR in 1290 CF innings last year, his poor numbers mostly due to his –12.1 run below average range. The only centerfielder worse than McCutchen, both in terms of range and overall, is Matt Kemp of the Dodgers. This could be a one-year blip, as McCutchen was a –1.3 run fielder in 2009, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say the Pirates may end up having to move him to right.

This is especially true when you consider the Pirates’ right field situation. Garrett Jones was the opening day starter, largely due to his 2.7 WAR season in 2009. However, in 158 games this year, Jones managed 0.1 WAR, so he wasn’t the answer. Ryan Church and Lastings Milledge got the next chance, but Milledge was good for only 0.7 WAR in 113 games, and Church was at –0.8 WAR after 69 games and was moved to Arizona in the Snyder deal. Delwyn Young was the next candidate, but he was also a below-average fielder and hitter, putting up a replacement-level 0.0 WAR. Ryan Doumit, the opening day catcher, took the next shot in right and proved to be an even worse option than the men who came before him, putting up a –5.1 UZR in 146 dreadful innings in right. For those of you keeping score at home, that’s the Pirates 5^th regular right fielder of the season, and they haven’t had one with a positive UZR yet. John Bowker, a career minor leaguer with the Giants, came over in the deal that sent Javier Lopez to San Francisco, putting up –0.1 WAR in 26 games with the Pirates. All in all, six Pirates played more than 50 innings in right this season, none had an above-average UZR, and they combined for a –13.5 UZR overall. Moving McCutchen to right could be the answer, but that would open up a hole in center. 

Complicating things further, the Pirates have Gorkys Hernandez, a strong centerfield prospect, waiting in the wings to take over. Hernandez is 22 and spent this season in AA ball, but his season ended when his right ring finger got hit by a pitch, so he only played in 92 games last year. I’m guessing he’s either a midseason callup or the Pirates will want him to get one more full season to polish his game in the minors. That means they’d need a short-term replacement in center, who could play for cheap and play decent defense. Also, on a young team like this, clubhouse leadership could be a pretty big factor, as the Pirates brass will be looking for a player who can mentor their younger hitters.

The patch-job that immediately comes to mind is Jim Edmonds. Edmonds, now a 17-year veteran, has continued to produce at a high level both offensively and defensively and could add short-term value for the Pirates in center. He’s a 5-time gold glover, and despite a bad defensive year in 2008, he’s come back this season and produced in center to the tune of 5.2 UZR in only 52 games (He didn’t play in 2009 because he couldn’t get an offer he found to be acceptable). Edmonds has also put up a 133 wRC+ this season, suggesting there’s something left in the old man’s bat. Though Edmonds has discussed retirement, he put together 2.8 WAR in essentially half a season, so with that kind of productivity left, I’d have to assume he’d consider sticking around to play another season, especially if the Pirates allowed him to rest his legs by playing at first on occasion. 

Is it a sexy pick? Hell no. But if the Pirates are looking for a decent defensive centerfielder to patch the position until Hernandez is ready and mentor young outfielders McCutchen and Jose Tabata, Edmonds could be a great choice that wouldn’t eat up too much payroll. We’ll see whether McCutchen to right is even discussed as an option, but if the Pirates consider it (and they probably should, unless they truly believe he’ll have a strong bounce-back year with the glove), Edmonds seems like the best fit to replace him in center.

Plan for the Offseason

Howdy, folks. It’s 102 days until February 13^th, the voluntary report date for pitchers, catchers, and injured players. That means we’ve got a long 3 months until baseball action. That doesn’t mean there won’t be serious movement in the baseball world. Free agents will be signed, trades will take place, and each team will attempt to build a potential championship squad, and I’ll be here to talk you through it all (or as much as a college sophomore can possibly cover).

That said, I’m going to be cutting back a bit for the offseason. I’m going to be posting every couple days, rather than daily as I’ve been doing so far. Between the reduced action and my increasingly busy class schedule, it just makes sense to lay off the throttle a tad. 

In addition to looking at the moves that actually happen, I’m going to be doing a series where I’ll look at what moves I think could make sense for teams, where they’ll maximize the value of both the player they’re adding and the players around him. It’ll be interesting to see whether these deals actually happen, but I’m going to base it less around the rumors about where guys will go and more about where they can be most effective.

The best way to keep up with me will be by following my Twitter account, @saberbythebay, but if you just check back to see if I’ve got a new post, that works too. 

I hope you enjoyed a very exciting postseason, including the unexpected twists and turns along the way. I certainly did, and I’m proud to say that I picked the correct winner in every single series (though I’ll admit I didn’t always have the right number of games). 

That said, what’s done is done, and while San Francisco’s parade is just hours from beginning, every front office in baseball has turned its attention to 2011. It’s a whole new season, and a whole new chance for the teams that couldn’t make it happen in 2010.

102 days isn’t that long. Just hang in there, and before you know it, the smell of fresh leather and the sound of bat on ball will be in the air once again.  

World Series Recap: Game 5 (The San Francisco Giants are World Champs Edition)

Wow. What a season. When I started this blog, on August 13^th, the Giants were 3.5 games back of the first-place Padres in the West, with a less than 50% chance of making the postseason. A little more than a month before, they were 6.5 games back and in fourth place, ahead of only Arizona, and looking at a 12.1% shot at October action. Now, these “castoffs and misfits” are World Series champions. Think about the stars of this postseason for the Giants. Cody Ross, DFA’d by the Marlins and picked up off the scrap heap, most likely less because the Giants wanted him and more because they didn’t want the Pads to get him. Aubrey Huff, a free agent until January and a fallback plan once Adam LaRoche didn’t pan out. Edgar Renteria, series MVP, hit the DL three separate times this season, and in what is likely his last season he hits two of the biggest home runs in San Francisco’s history. Andres Torres, a career minor leaguer who spent time with the Tigers, Rangers, Twins, the Tigers again, and finally the Cubs, before being picked up off the scrap-heap and becoming one of the best players on the entire club.

And then, you have to give a shout-out to Giants’ brass for some fantastic drafting. With all the stars in this series, maybe the most important and least heralded member of the Giants’ organization was scouting director Dick Tidrow. Sure, take the shaggy-haired weed-smoking babyface every other franchise thinks is doomed to injury and won’t ever put up a 200-inning season. The country kid with a southern drawl out of Dothan, Alabama, somewhat overlooked in a draft full of high-school pitchers with tons of potential and more polished hurlers. The big lefty who, barely old enough to drink, pitched 8 shutout innings in the World Series to put the team a win away. The wild-eyed closer out of LSU with less stuff than many big leaguers but enough cajones to make him the best reliever in the game this season anyway. The shortstop-turned-catcher who became the first rookie backstop to hit cleanup in the playoffs. 

This game, this series, this month, this season, and this accomplishment will never be forgotten because it was a true team effort. Pitching. Defense. Unselfish offense. The blast to left that brought it all together. But it all started with Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee, facing off for a second time after game 1 did not produce the expected pitcher’s duel. This one, however, would be all about the men on the mound, as each was dominant from the start. Through 6 innings, this game had seen seven total baserunners on five hits, one walk and an error. None had reached second base. The pitchers had combined for ten strikeouts, and both looked ready to duel long into the night.

However, that wouldn’t be necessary. In the top of the seventh, Cody Ross led off, and after fouling off three pitches, slapped a single up the middle. Juan Uribe fouled off another two pitches before singling to center on an 0-2, marking the first time two baserunners had been on base at the same time all night. With runners on first and second and nobody out, this was an obvious sacrifice bunt situation. The only problem? Coming to the plate was Aubrey Huff, who in 5505 regular-season at-bats has not one sac bunt to his name. The only active player who’s hit more without a sacrifice bunt is Texas DH Vladimir Guerrero. By some act of god, Huff laid down a beautiful bunt and Cliff Lee had to make an acrobatic play back and to his left simply to record the out at first. 

So with one down, the Giants had men in scoring position and one out. Pat Burrell, who went 0 for 13 with 11 strikeouts in the World Series, came up and battled against Lee. He worked a full count before swinging through strike three for the second out of the inning. Lee’s strikeout of Burrell produced a .132 WPA, turning a situation in which the Giants expected to score into one where a base hit would be needed against a man who had allowed 3 all day before that inning. However, Renteria was feeling it. Apparently he’d told Andres Torres he was going to hit a home run before the game. Twice. After hitting three all season. Renteria saw two balls and was in the driver’s seat. Lee elevated a cutter slightly. Renteria hit it to left-center. David Murphy raced back but the ball cleared the wall by what seemed like inches, giving the Giants the three-run lead and making him only the fourth man to get the game-winning RBI in two different World Series clinchers (who can forget his game 7 11^th-inning walkoff single for the Marlins in ’97?), joining Gehrig, DiMaggio, and Berra. Not bad company. 

Lincecum smelled blood in the water and went in for the kill. He struck out Guerrero to lead off the next inning. Nelson Cruz, however, showed that the Rangers were not done yet by hitting a deep drive to left that would leave the yard for a solo home run. After a long at-bat, Ian Kinsler was able to work a walk to bring the tying run to the plate. From there, Lincecum went beast mode. After two straight strikeouts, the Rangers had two innings to get two runs. The Giants went down quickly in the 8^th and Lincecum took the mound, recording yet another strikeout (his 10^th) to begin the inning. He then got two groundouts and the Rangers were down to their final three outs. 

To lock down the final frame, Brian Wilson jogged from the bullpen, beginning his evening by striking out Josh Hamilton looking after four pitches. Guerrero grounded to short and there was one out to go. Wilson got strike one with a slider on the inside corner. Ball one was a slider low and away. He got a swinging strike on a high fastball to put the Giants one strike away. He threw a fastball well outside and then a slider that broke just off of the outside corner to make it a full count. He then threw a slider high and inside. Cruz took a mighty hack and got nothing but air as Posey leaped out of his stance and ran to the mound to begin the celebration. Lincecum hurdled the dugout fence. Cody Ross and Aaron Rowand tackled each other in the outfield. Aubrey Huff tossed his glove and embraced Wilson and Posey on the mound. Bruce Bochy and Giants pitching coach Dave Righetti hugged it out. The bullpen ran in from the outfield to join the party in the center of the diamond. An extremely classy crowd applauded both a great season by their hometown Rangers and the World Series Champion San Francisco Giants. 

For one last time, let’s see it by the numbers.

WPA Leader: Tim Lincecum (.463)

Lincecum was dominant, going 8 3-hit innings and allowing only one baserunner (Cruz, on his solo home run) to make it past first base. While the Giants have gotten dazzling performances from other pitchers this postseason, including Cain, Bumgarner, and several members of the bullpen, Lincecum proved last night why he’s the ace. In the biggest start of his career, against the best hitting club in baseball, Lincecum never gave the Rangers’ hitters a chance. Series MVP Edgar Renteria’s .258 led all hitters, giving him a .422 total for the series. 

Biggest Plays: 

When you hit a home run in the highest-leverage at-bat of the game, it doesn’t get much bigger than that. With the pressure on in a 3.39 LI situation, Renteria’s improbable home run produced a .355 WPA. This could be the end of Renteria’s long career in the big leagues. World Series MVP is one hell of a way to go out, and there’s no question Renteria earned it with his 7 for 17 performance in the Series. He OPS’d 1.209 and without his home runs in both games two and five this could have been a very different series. As I’ve noted, his regular-season performance obviously wasn’t worth what the Giants were paying him. However, when he does something like that, I feel like I have no choice but to take back everything I’ve ever said about Edgar Renteria and applaud him on one hell of a series.

The Goat:

Pat Burrell went 0 for 4 with 3 strikeouts, capping a miserable series for him with a -.193 WPA in the final game. Josh Hamilton, the biggest threat in the Rangers’ lineup, was almost absent from this series, posting a 2 for 20 overall and going 0 for 4 with 2 strikeouts last night, as he didn’t manage to get a ball out of the infield. Burrell ended up with an atrocious -.422 WPA for the series, while Hamilton’s -.270 wasn’t much better.

So that’s it. The Giants are your World Champions. I can die in peace. I’d like to congratulate a legitimately strong and very classy Rangers’ team on their AL pennant-winning season. And thanks to you, my readers, for sticking with me through the first playoff experience for this blog. It’s been a fun ride. Check back tomorrow, when I’ll tell you my offseason plans for this site.

World Series Recap: Game 4

Game 4 of the World Series pitted Giants’ rookie stud Madison Bumgarner against the Rangers’ Tommy Hunter. Bumgarner’s been fantastic for the Giants this year, and the big lefty should be a lock for the starting rotation next year. Tommy Hunter hasn’t been quite as good for Texas (4.99 FIP), and some (including myself) believed Derek Holland should have gotten the start. However, Ron Washington decided that Hunter gave him the best chance to win, and gave him the game ball to begin this contest.

The Giants would threaten early. Andres Torres led off with a single and stole second to put a man in scoring position with no outs. However, after 3 straight groundouts, Torres was eventually stranded at third. The Rangers would also put their leadoff man on, as Elvis Andrus walked, but after a fielder’s choice the Rangers’ opportunity was erased by a great double play set up by the glovework of Freddy Sanchez. It was only the first of several spectacular defensive plays made by Sanchez last night.

The Giants would put runners on first and third in the second, but failed to capitalize. However, they did break out to a lead in the third. Hunter allowed a leadoff double to Andres Torres, and after a Freddy Sanchez groundout, Aubrey Huff bombed a shot to right-center to put the Giants up 2-0. The next few innings would be uneventful, but you really should take a look (if you haven’t already) at the throw Buster Posey made to nail Josh Hamilton trying to steal second to end the fourth frame. One of the best throws I’ve ever seen a catcher make, and he’s a rookie in the World Series. 

Hunter wouldn’t get past the fourth, as Alexi Ogando came in to start the 5^th and produced Texas’ first 1-2-3 inning of the game. Ogando was well on his way to a perfect 6^th as well, with two down and one strike on Juan Uribe before he threw the second pitch of the at-bat well outside. Ogando immediately walked off the mound, leaving with a left oblique strain without throwing another pitch. Darren Oliver came in and finished the at-bat for another perfect inning. 

The Giants would get a run off of Oliver in the following inning. After Edgar Renteria’s one-out single, Nate Schierholtz struck out looking. Andres Torres came up, and Bruce Bochy put the hit-and-run on in a one-strike count. Torres delivered with a one-hopper off the top of the right-centerfield wall to score Renteria, and the Giants were up 3-0.

Oliver would start the top of the 8^th, but was relieved by Darren O’Day after inducing an Aubrey Huff groundout to start the inning. Buster Posey followed by hitting a fly ball that Josh Hamilton started to move to his right to make a play on. The ball started to carry and Hamilton went back… and back… and back… before watching the ball travel over his head and over the wall in dead center for a solo shot to make this a 4-0. 

Bumgarner shut down the Rangers in the 8^th in what would be his last inning. The rookie absolutely flabbergasted the strong Texas lineup, and many Giants fans (myself included) would have liked to see him go for the complete-game shutout. However, Bruce Bochy decided to play it safe and bring in all-world closer and all-universe whackjob Brian Wilson to close it out in a non-save situation. Wilson avoided the torture that has become so familiar among Giants fans by pitching a 1-2-3 ninth, striking out two including Josh Hamilton to end the game.

Let’s take a closer look.

Giants vs. Rangers

WPA Leader: Madison Bumgarner (.472 WPA)

Bumgarner was lights-out last night. He became the youngest rookie ever to pitch a 6 inning or longer shutout in the World Series, and the fourth youngest pitcher ever to win a game in the Fall Classic. Bumgarner went 8 innings and gave up only three hits and two walks while striking out six. As with Matt Cain’s start in game 2, if the baseball world didn’t know about Madison Bumgarner before, it sure as hell does now.

Biggest Plays:

Aubrey Huff’s two-run smash to open the scoring against the team he grew up rooting for, less than 65 miles from his hometown of Mineral Wells, trumped all other plays in this contest, with a .165 WPA. Watching him run the bases is one of the more enjoyable experiences I’ve had as a baseball fan. In his 10-year career, Huff had never been involved in a playoff race until this season. Now, after pretty much every team gave up on him last offseason (remember, he wasn’t even the Giants’ first choice… they lost out on Adam LaRoche), he’s been a top-10 hitter in the NL this year and is OPSing 1.152 in the World Series against the team he spent his childhood cheering on. It doesn’t get much better than that. The unbridled joy on Huff’s face makes it easy to see why San Franciscans go so crazy for this team, after showing somewhat weak support for 2002’s World Series club. The personality of this Giants club is simply infectious. When you really boil it down, baseball is a game, and players are supposed to be having fun playing it. The Giants do as good a job as any team I’ve ever laid eyes on of reminding us of that fact. Also big were Andres Torres’ double to right-center in the 7^th to score Renteria and Torres’ leadoff double in the third that bounced off the bag and over Mitch Moreland’s head.

The Goat:

Freddy Sanchez’s 0 for 4 makes him the worst player in this one according to WPA (-.118), but I think we can give him a reprieve for flashing the leather in spectacular fashion on several occasions last night. Rangers DH Vladimir Guerrero went 0 for 3 with a hat trick, as Bumgarner struck him out three times. Considering the fact that he doesn’t add any value on defense as a DH, he has to be the goat for this one.

Three months ago, Madison Bumgarner couldn’t legally drink champagne. Tonight, he’ll hope to celebrate in it as the Giants and Tim Lincecum will look to end this series against Rangers’ ace Cliff Lee. It should be a great game, so tune in and check back here tomorrow for a full write-up.