tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-63226189322465231702024-03-05T10:29:44.013-08:00Saber By The BayPutting the "Math" in "Mathewson"Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.comBlogger168125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-63124436396269324012012-07-17T15:41:00.001-07:002012-07-17T15:42:11.958-07:00The Future of Saber by the BayHey folks,<br />
I'm currently writing for <a href="http://calltothepen.com/author/saberbythebay/" target="_blank">Call to the Pen</a>, and my work there is exclusive, which of course has meant I haven't been able to post on this page. I'm going to keep this page up for now, and there's some chance I will begin posting here again in the future should I decide I need an independent platform for one reason or another, but for now please follow the link through to check out my weekly columns at CttP.<br />
Thanks,<br />
DougDoug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-75078454536434533272012-03-26T07:31:00.000-07:002012-03-26T07:31:17.192-07:00Call to the Pen: The Queen City Closer Conundrum<span style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; text-align: left;">The Queen City Closer Conundrum... after news that Ryan Madson will undergo Tommy John surgery, Sean Marshall and Aroldis Chapman will fill the void at the back of the bullpen. Can the Reds still make an October run? Read up and decide for yourself at <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7xsthqv" target="_blank">Call to the Pen</a>.</span>Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-42837550471837781772012-03-22T07:13:00.000-07:002012-03-22T07:13:27.135-07:00Call to the Pen: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Season Preview<h6 class="uiStreamMessage" data-ft="{"type":1}" style="background-color: white; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; font-weight: normal; line-height: 14px; margin-bottom: 5px; margin-left: 0px; margin-right: 0px; margin-top: 0px; padding-bottom: 0px; padding-left: 0px; padding-right: 0px; padding-top: 0px; text-align: left; word-break: break-word; word-wrap: break-word;"><span class="messageBody" data-ft="{"type":3}">The first of two back-to-back season previews, as I take on the new-look Angels. The team's under new leadership in GM Jerry Dipoto, and Dipoto's first offseason was anything but ordinary after the team pulled the Winter Meetings two-fer to grab the best hitter and pitcher on the market, Albert Pujols and CJ Wilson. Click over to <a href="http://tinyurl.com/6n3eo4w" target="_blank">Call to the Pen</a> for more.<br />
#fansided #calltothepen</span></h6><div><span class="messageBody" data-ft="{"type":3}"><br />
</span></div><div class="mvm plm uiStreamAttachments clearfix uiAttachmentNoMedia" data-ft="{"type":10}" style="background-color: white; border-left-color: rgb(204, 204, 204); border-left-style: solid; border-left-width: 2px; color: #333333; font-family: 'lucida grande', tahoma, verdana, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 11px; line-height: 14px; margin-bottom: 10px; margin-top: 10px; padding-left: 10px; text-align: left; zoom: 1;"><div><div class="fsm fwn fcg" style="color: grey;"></div></div></div>Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-36510298341114532222012-03-14T08:49:00.000-07:002012-03-14T08:49:30.452-07:00Call to the Pen: Oakland A's Season PreviewMy A's season preview is up at <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7cqgpm6" target="_blank">Call to the Pen</a>. If you're an A's fan, or just interested in what Cespedes n' crew can do this year, hop over and check it out.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-27962595358005709282012-03-12T09:18:00.001-07:002012-03-12T14:38:00.330-07:00Call to the Pen: Big Names Struggle To Find Homes As Opening Day ApproachesThis offseason's market has been a tough one for veterans, and as a result several are still sitting at home waiting for a call. I explore why these players haven't attracted much interest and where they might be going, or the situation they'd need to open up for a team to show interest.<br />
<br />
Check it out at <a href="http://calltothepen.com/2012/03/12/big-names-struggle-to-find-homes-as-opening-day-approaches/" target="_blank">Call to the Pen</a>.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-71704552523346117342012-03-05T07:15:00.000-08:002012-03-05T07:15:31.745-08:00Call to the Pen: Playoff Expansion Winners and LosersLast week, MLB announced the playoffs would expand to include an extra Wild Card team in each league. This decision causes the playoff chances of some teams to skyrocket, while others who were already well-positioned might dread the thought of the one-game playoff that comes with a Wild Card slot. Check out the winners and losers in the new structure at <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7ngjf4e" target="_blank">Call to the Pen.</a>Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-66572750363883209282012-02-27T16:20:00.000-08:002012-02-27T16:20:48.262-08:00Call to the Pen: Zimmerman Extension Gives Nationals Stability, ValueRyan Zimmerman's new deal cements him as the leader of a young and exciting Nationals' squad. Already the longest-tenured active National, Zimmerman is now under team control until at least 2019. I expect him to add value on the field as long as he can stay healthy, but the Nationals will also be looking for Zimmerman to provide veteran leadership and mentor promising prospects like Bryce Harper, and eventually Anthony Rendon. <a href="http://calltothepen.com/2012/02/27/ryan-zimmerman-extension-brings-stability-value-to-nationals/" target="_blank">Check out my full analysis at Call to the Pen.</a>Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-69051552785127588212012-02-13T08:35:00.000-08:002012-02-13T08:35:56.473-08:00Call to the Pen: On Farm System Rankings And Philosophical DifferencesEarlier this week, ESPN's Keith Law put out his 2012 Farm System Rankings, rating the Padres' system as the best in baseball. This ranking illustrates a clear philosophical difference in the way he and I evaluate future talent. Learn what that difference is and how I'd rate the Padres and the league's other top systems at <a href="http://calltothepen.com/2012/02/13/on-farm-system-rankings-and-philosophical-differences/" target="_blank">Call to the Pen</a>.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-4779913738328136662012-02-06T08:54:00.000-08:002012-02-06T08:54:31.523-08:00Call to the Pen: Why Pineda (Probably) Isn't the Answer for the YankeesMany people seem to think Michael Pineda and Jesus Montero are saviors for their respective new rotation and lineup. I think expectations need to be tempered, especially in Pineda's case, for a variety of reasons. He'll have a tough time succeeding in New York, but he has the talent to do so. It'll require him to refine his pitching style, though, and I think people expecting him to repeat his 2011 performance immediately are likely to be disappointed. Find out why at <a href="http://tinyurl.com/79sa9rz" target="_blank">Call to the Pen.</a>Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-10694547932441485932012-01-30T08:26:00.000-08:002012-01-30T08:26:43.434-08:00Call to the Pen: Ian Kinsler, SuperstarTexas' second baseman and leadoff spark doesn't get the respect he deserves. Whether it's because he doesn't rack up gaudy RBI totals from the leadoff position or due to the other mashers in his lineup or at second base for other AL teams, Kinsler deserves to be recognized as the stud he is. <a href="http://calltothepen.com/2012/01/30/ian-kinsler-superstar/" target="_blank">Check it out</a> over at Call to the Pen, and take a gander at the site's cool new layout as well.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-32066527564664438652012-01-23T09:30:00.000-08:002012-01-23T09:30:59.420-08:00Call to the Pen: Prince Fielder and the Process of EliminationThis week, I've looked through Prince Fielder's market and eliminated the teams I don't think have a shot due to a few different criteria. I pared down to five different destinations and explained why I think some are much more likely than others. Check the piece out <a href="http://tinyurl.com/846cavd" target="_blank">here</a>.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-63849867917785070082012-01-16T08:41:00.000-08:002012-01-16T08:41:07.201-08:00Call to the Pen: The Reds Make a Title PushThe Reds are taking advantage of what looks like a weak NL Central to push for the division title in 2012. In acquiring Mat Latos, Sean Marshall, and Ryan Madson, Walt Jocketty hopes to leapfrog the Cardinals and Brewers for a shot at October glory. Read about their decision to go for it all on <a href="http://tinyurl.com/857rq2p" target="_blank">Call to the Pen</a>.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-29204119550971040692012-01-09T14:24:00.000-08:002012-01-09T14:24:38.244-08:00Call to the Pen: The Future of the CubsThe acquisition of Anthony Rizzo serves as a strong signal for where Theo, Hoyer and Co. see the Cubs going in the next few years. Head over to <a href="http://tinyurl.com/7qjnldn" target="_blank">Call to the Pen</a> for the deeper significance of the trade.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-5661658899509233252012-01-02T06:42:00.000-08:002012-01-02T06:42:07.871-08:00Call to the Pen: Buying the Yoenis Cespedes Hype?My new post is up on CttP. I've watched a good deal of tape of Cuban outfielder Yoenis Cespedes, and while he certainly has raw talent, I don't think he's going to be worth his massive price tag. <a href="http://calltothepen.com/2012/01/02/yoenis-cespedes-believe-the-hype/" target="_blank">Find out why at Call to the Pen</a>.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-39181004621345199582011-12-26T08:32:00.000-08:002011-12-26T08:32:20.669-08:00Call to the Pen: the Gio Gonzalez TradeThe Gio Gonzlez trade suggests that the Nats believe they're ready to compete for DC's first World Series in 87 years. The last time Washington brought home a championship, it was on the back of a Game 7 victory by inner-circle Hall of Famer Walter "The Big Train" Johnson to win the 1924 Series.<div><br />
</div><div><a href="http://calltothepen.com/2011/12/26/2011-mlb-transactions-washington-nationals-acquire-gio-gonzalez-from-oakland-a%E2%80%99s/#more-224725" target="_blank">Check it out over on Call to the Pen. </a></div>Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-31689456985799084242011-12-20T09:49:00.000-08:002011-12-20T09:49:14.766-08:00The Future of SBTBHey everyone,<br />
<br />
I've been asked to begin writing for a new site, the Fansided network's Call to the Pen. Call to the Pen has nearly a dozen impressive writers covering baseball from a number of angles, and has been consistently putting up 100,000+ hits/month, so it's an exciting opportunity for me. Unfortunately, I won't be able to post my SBTB posts on CttP or vice-versa, so it will likely mean I'll be slowing down my posting schedule on here a bit, but I'll always throw out a SBTB post, tweet, and facebook link whenever I put up a new article. I will still be posting on SBTB, especially when I have a feature article I'm putting out that I've done a lot of work on. I hope you'll follow me over and continue reading my work at CttP. I'll be posting regularly on Sundays and intermittently otherwise.<br />
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My new post is on the Latos trade, which I don't feel was a great fit for either side. The Reds got a flyball pitcher who will hate Cincy's home park, while the prospects the Padres picked up directly block two key pieces of the team's future. <a href="http://calltothepen.com/2011/12/20/mat-latos-trade-a-poor-fit-for-both-sides/" target="_blank">Click here to check it out.</a><br />
<br />
Thanks,<br />
DougDoug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-48692494403136907672011-12-12T15:40:00.000-08:002011-12-12T19:22:58.407-08:00What’s the Best Player in Baseball Worth?In a twist reminiscent of last year’s Cliff Lee negotiations, what appeared to be a two-team race for the services of Albert Pujols between the Cardinals and Marlins was upset by the entrance of a third “Mystery Team.” Though many believed the Mystery Team was simply a tactic Pujols’ agent, Dan Lozano, was using to squeeze every possible dollar out of Pujols’ suitors, buzz around the mystery team rumor continued to grow. In the course of roughly 12 hours on Wednesday night and Thursday morning of the Winter Meetings, headlines such as “<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/angels-pursuing-albert-pujols.html">Pujols Deciding Between Cardinals, Marlins</a>” and statements such as “<a href="https://twitter.com/#%21/TBrownYahoo/status/144328211839467520">Angels are definitely not in on Pujols</a>” gave way to news that <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/angels-to-sign-albert-pujols.html">Pujols’ pact with the Angels</a> was confirmed. Pujols will receive $254M over the next ten years, with his contract expiring in his age 41 season. <br />
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Signing a once-in-a-generation player to a Free Agent deal is always a difficult proposition because, almost by definition, there are very few players who can be invoked as comparables to the 31 year old Pujols and used to determine his long-term value. In analyzing Pujols’ contract, I will look at the aging curves of players approaching Pujols’ caliber to estimate a reasonable expectation for Pujols’ future production and determine whether he is likely to produce enough value to be worth the value of his massive contract.<br />
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I used Baseball-Reference’s Play Index (a nifty tool, if you haven’t played around with it) to find all expansion-era (post-1961) players who produced >50 WAR in their first 11 seasons while playing an offense-heavy position (1B, 3B, LF, RF). In his first 11 seasons, Pujols has put up an incredible 89.1 WAR, but looking at players in this group who eclipsed that mammoth total would leave you with… well, Pujols. Though he’s an outlier among outliers, the rest of this group is populated with Hall of Famers and all-time greats, and I believe the aging curve established by these players will provide some insight into how Pujols may age. Overall, this group included 20 players, but I removed Pujols and Ichiro Suzuki, as both have just completed their 11th season in the Majors. I then looked at the average production among the players for each subsequent year after their 11th. Comparing this average production to the players’ three-year weighted (standard 5-4-3 weighting) average from their 9th to 11th seasons, we can determine how quickly a player’s contributions diminish as they age. Then, using Pujols’ 3-year averages as a starting point, we can depreciate his value based on these ratios and estimate his production in each year of his contract. Multiplying these values by $/WAR, with a 5%/year inflation rate added, gives us Pujols’ total expected value over the length of the contract. Got all that? Let’s dive in.<br />
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The 18 players included in the data set are: Barry Bonds, Mike Schmidt, Wade Boggs, Ricky Henderson, Jeff Bagwell, Carl Yastrzemski, Frank Thomas, Reggie Jackson, Ron Santo, Dick Allen, George Brett, Bobby Bonds, Todd Helton, Eddie Murray, Sal Bando, Pete Rose, Scott Rolen, and Chipper Jones. Most of these players, unsurprisingly, were not able to finish their 21st seasons in the Majors, so players are not included in the average for any year after their retirement. This may understate the likelihood that Pujols retires before the end of his contract, but I don’t see this as a major risk, especially considering Pujols’ incredible durability. Pujols has played 1705 games in his first 11 seasons, the best total for any player included in this data. Several active players also have not completed their 21st seasons, which was treated similarly to players who retired. Regardless, it’s difficult to project much production as Pujols nears and passes age 40, so these data aren’t as important as trying to estimate production for the first few years of Pujols’ contract.<br />
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Overall, the players averaged almost exactly 5 WAR in their 9th through 11th MLB seasons. After this point, their production dropped off by an average of 15% per year until the end of their careers. In total, taking the average production from each year produces an expected 27 WAR for players’ 12th to 21st seasons, or 5.44 times the players’ three-year average baseline.<br />
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<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0AgnwgCSyuYSidFVKTVRxUWVIc2lSS0pyaGNzanllZkE&single=true&gid=0&output=html" target="_blank">Click to see data from comparables</a><br />
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Pujols’ three-year weighted average is 6.9 WAR, so we’ll use that as our starting point. The projected first six years of Pujols’ contract, through the 2017 campaign, seem to be something like what the Angels have in mind in signing Pujols, as this model suggests he will be in the 4-6 WAR range each season. After 2017, however, Pujols’ expected value drops precipitously, as the model projects less than 10 WAR total over the final four seasons of Pujols’ deal. After multiplying these WAR values by the $/WAR inflation rates, Pujols’ total expected value over the course of the deal comes out to $222M, $32M short of the total value of his contract. Although this is a fairly rough calculation, it offers a clear indication that Pujols could have trouble living up to the total dollar value of his massive deal.<br />
<a href="http://www.blogger.com/goog_698745042"><br />
</a><br />
<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/pub?hl=en_US&hl=en_US&key=0AgnwgCSyuYSidFVKTVRxUWVIc2lSS0pyaGNzanllZkE&single=true&gid=1&output=html" target="_blank">Click to see the model's predictions for Pujols' production</a><br />
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So, if that’s the case, what’s the reasoning behind the Angels’ huge bid? Well, first of all, there are a ton of ways to calculate Pujols’ expected future value, and each one results in a slightly different evaluation. Additionally, since more recent data are weighted more heavily to improve the accuracy of our projections, Pujols' "down" (5.1 WAR) year has a large effect on Pujols' initial value and every subsequent value. If Pujols can prove 2011 was a fluke and return to producing 7+ WAR per year, as he did in nine of his first ten Big League seasons, his projected value will see a big jump throughout the life of the contract. However, even if Pujols doesn’t produce a full $254M worth of value over the course of his stay in Los Angeles, there are still reasons to believe this contract could be a win for the Angels. <br />
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Pujols’ value off the field, especially to the Angels, is huge. Since purchasing the Angels in 2003, owner Arte Moreno has positioned the team as a representative of the city’s massive Latino population, to fantastic results in attendance and revenue. If there’s any player that can be leveraged to market to that population, it’s Pujols. The team just signed a 20-year, $3 Billion <a href="http://losangeles.sbnation.com/los-angeles-angels/2011/12/8/2622757/los-angeles-angels-tv-deal-3-billion-20-years-albert-pujols-c-j-wilson-arte-moreno">TV contract</a> with FOX Sports. While the deal was signed before the Winter Meetings, it certainly provides the funds needed to make big Free Agency splashes, as the Angels did with Pujols and CJ Wilson. It’s also not outside of the realm of possibility that the Angels and FOX had an understanding that, once their deal was agreed upon, some of the Angels’ new revenue would be infused into their future Major League payroll to increase TV viewership and fan interest. Additionally, Pujols will contribute as a veteran presence and respected leader, assisting with the development of the team’s young players both during his contract and afterward, as his contract <a href="http://twitter.com/#%21/Alden_Gonzalez/status/145656612361744385">includes the stipulation</a> that he will serve as a consultant to Moreno for a decade after his retirement.<br />
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Although Pujols is unlikely to produce at a high enough level to justify his contract based on his on-field value alone, he provides so much added value in his other attributes that it’s easy to see why the Angels felt comfortable offering this huge deal despite his advanced age. Pujols is a franchise-changing talent, and the Angels hope that his total value to the franchise will far exceed the dollars he’ll be paid over the next decade.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-18007886590349083432011-12-05T09:31:00.000-08:002011-12-05T09:31:08.836-08:00Mets' Decision to Keep Reyes BackfiresJust before the trade deadline, Mets’ GM Sandy Alderson faced a dilemma; <a href="http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2011/writers/jon_heyman/06/20/trade.market.hitters/index.html">Trade his shortstop</a>, best player, and the face of the franchise, for prospects that could help the team in the future, or hold on to him and receive draft pick compensation if Reyes were to go elsewhere in Free Agency. Alderson decided Reyes had more value to the team as a shortstop than a trade chip, and decided to allow Reyes to finish out his contract with the Mets.<br />
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When Reyes hit the market this offseason, his departure seemed quite likely, and at this point is certain. The Mets’ <a href="http://twitter.com/#!/Joelsherman1/status/143486879285772288">offered Reyes</a> five years at $80 million, which was not enough to prevent Reyes from<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/marlins-reyes-agree-to-six-year-deal.html"> inking last night</a> with the Miami Marlins on a six-year, $106M deal. <br />
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From the Mets’ perspective, Reyes signing with the Marlins is basically a worst-case scenario. On the field, they’ll have to see Reyes suit up for their division rival 18 times per year for the foreseeable future. That’s not even the worst of it, though. At 72-90, the Marlins finished in the bottom half of MLB teams, meaning they have a pick in the first half of the first round that is protected from being given up as compensation for Free Agent signings. Additionally, the team has already signed Heath Bell, who is a higher-ranked Free Agent according to<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/official-elias-rankings.html"> Elias’ rankings</a>, despite Reyes receiving a contract for more than double the guaranteed money. Because of the new CBA’s reordering of Type A and Type B Free Agents, the Marlins will not need to give up their second round pick to the Padres, although the Padres still receive a compensation pick directly before the Marlins’ second-rounder. So, since Bell was a higher-ranked free agent under the old system, he bumps the Reyes compensation pick back a round, while the Marlins won’t have to actually give up that pick because of the changes to arbitration rules for relievers under the new system. This is a coup for the Marlins, who have exploited the shift in CBA arbitration policies perfectly, while the Mets get the short end of the stick, as their compensation pick for Reyes will be no higher than the Marlins’ third rounder, and could very easily drop from there.<br />
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The buzz around baseball suggests that the Marlins aren’t done spending. If they go on to sign another Type A Free Agent ranked higher than Reyes, the Mets’ compensation pick could be bumped back even further. The Marlins are <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/12/cubs-will-try-for-albert-pujols.html">still considered players for Albert Pujols</a>, and to a lesser extent Prince Fielder and CJ Wilson, all of whom receive a better Elias score than Reyes and the signing of any of whom would result in the Mets’ compensation for their best shortstop in franchise history being a fourth round pick.<br />
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While trading Reyes might have been <a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkNvkOvY81k">tough to swallow for the Mets’ fanbase</a>, holding on to him has resulted in yet another obstacle to their returning to contention. The Mets should be looking to restock their farm system and add young talent through any means possible, in order to set themselves up to compete sometime around 2014 or 2015. By trading<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/giants-to-acquire-carlos-beltran.html"> Carlos Beltran</a> and <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/giants-to-acquire-carlos-beltran.html">Francisco Rodriguez</a> at the deadline, they did so to a certain extent, but by hanging on to Reyes the Mets may have missed out on most of the value they could have gotten from their best trade chip.<br />
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This situation is quite unique, as it required the change in compensation systems and the Marlins’ decision to push for most of the top-tier Free Agents to line up. However, it offers a reminder of the uncertainty surrounding any Free Agent market and the old Elias Ranking compensation rules. For a team that needs young talent as badly as the Mets, holding on to Reyes to appease the fanbase for a few months was simply a risk they couldn’t take. Although I’ve been impressed by Sandy Alderson’s tenure with the Mets so far, taking the PR hit at the deadline would have been worth trading Reyes, as it now represents the difference between the prospects that might have been available in a deadline deal and the third- or fourth-round draft pick the team will now receive. If Reyes had signed for a team that would have resulted in the Mets’ receiving a first-round pick as compensation, the Mets still probably could have gotten more value for him in a trade. With a first-rounder as the best-case scenario, and the possibility for that pick to drop further, the team should have taken Reyes’ value in prospects when they had the opportunity. Instead, Reyes’ compensation represents another setback for the Mets in their push to return to the playoffs and emerge from the shadow of their crosstown rivals.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-55455225348738833062011-11-28T07:58:00.000-08:002011-11-28T07:58:09.601-08:00The New Inefficiencies: Scouting and DevelopmentAs many avid baseball fans are already aware, MLB has announced the signing of a <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/cba-details-luxury-tax-draft-.html">new labor agreement</a> that will govern baseball for the next five years. This new CBA extends baseball’s labor peace that reaches back to the 1994 strike, the longest such streak of the four major leagues after the NBA and NFL’s lockouts this year. The new CBA takes many significant steps forward. Players will be now be tested for Human Growth Hormone under the league’s PED policy, the ridiculous Elias rankings have been eliminated in favor of a system based on the salary teams are willing to offer arbitration candidates, and earlier deadlines will speed the offseason up and allow more time for free agency to play out as teams can more quickly evaluate their needs and potential solutions. <br />
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However, many analysts see the CBA as a step backwards for competitive balance, allowing large-market teams that can afford a large Major League payroll to prosper while teams with smaller payrolls now have less chances to make up the difference through intelligent resource allocation. By imposing a hard cap on international spending and creating a system that effectively amounts to a hard cap on the Amateur Draft, the new CBA means that small-market teams will find it much harder to make up their Major League payroll gap by signing and developing young talent.<br />
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Over the past couple years, several small-market teams have isolated draft and international spending as a market inefficiency that could allow them to compete with teams that can afford a larger major league payroll. Top draft spenders include the Pirates, Blue Jays, Nationals, and Royals, while the international market has been dominated by the larger-budget Mariners and Yankees with the Astros, Pirates, A’s, and Blue Jays just behind. These teams will no longer have the ability to outspend their competitors in these markets, so they’ll need to find new ways to stretch their dollars in order to compete with richer teams.<br />
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For these teams, the key to competing on a small payroll will always be an abundance of young, controllable talent. The Rays’ success, for example, relies on the production they get from players during their pre-arbitration and their arbitration-eligible seasons, as they are priced out of the market for elite free agent talent. Without an ability to spend big on amateurs to acquire that young, controllable talent, these teams will need to stretch the little money they are allowed in order to build their farm systems and produce cheap Major League talent. <br />
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If teams are no longer able to spend big in order to take advantage of the inefficiencies of the draft and international markets, they will need to find new ways to maximize the amateur talent they do acquire. For now, the focus of small-market teams will shift to their amateur scouting and player development.<br />
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With draft bonuses capped by the new system, teams are no longer charged with deciding whether a certain player is worth going “over slot” for, as the slot penalties go from a harsh tax on dollars spent over slot to the possibility of losing future draft picks. Now, teams will simply be looking to draft the best player available that they believe is ready to sign with a Major League organization. Since teams won’t be spending as much money on draft and international bonuses, they have the opportunity to reallocate some of this money toward their scouting department. With these additional resources, teams will give their scouts a better chance to properly evaluate amateur players, and the small-market teams hope that this will result in a continuous flow of talent to the big leagues. <br />
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Teams will also look to their player development staffs to get the most out of every draft pick. When a player is drafted, his team sets goals for his development and attempts to guide that player towards achieving those goals and becoming a big-league talent. In order to cull as many useful players from the draft and international market as possible, I believe teams will allocate more resources in researching player development and trying to optimize their system to get the most out of their amateur talent. <br />
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I believe this will also shift teams’ focus more towards younger players. For years, many have suggested that selecting high school players in the draft or signing younger international players may be an unnecessary risk, as due to their age and relative inexperience these players are unknown quantities. However, I’m currently researching data for another project that suggests that these players may not be exceptionally risky after all, and drafting them gives teams the ability to mold the player much more than they could an older prospect. By selecting young players with their limited amateur spending budgets and developing those players with the teams’ strategy in mind, small-market GMs will be continue to maximize the output of their spending on amateur talent even if that spending is now capped. <br />
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While MLB owners simply saw a place in the CBA where they could save some money, the draft and international spending caps actually act as a huge barrier to competitive balance. The new CBA removes a market inefficiency many teams saw as their avenue to compete with a smaller budget. Now that this inefficiency is no longer an option, small-market teams will look to improve their amateur scouting and player development systems. If they are unable to continue to produce a strong pipeline of MLB talent under the new spending constraints, this CBA will simply widen the gap between the rich and poor teams.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-49150772815549550302011-11-16T12:32:00.000-08:002012-01-04T08:33:30.471-08:00The Relief Market Goes NutsLast week, reports surfaced that the Phillies were <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/phillies-madson-nearing-four-year-deal-.html">nearing an agreement</a> with representatives for their free agent closer, Ryan Madson. Madson’s deal was said to be for $44M over 4 years and pending only the approval of team CEO David Montgomery. Those reports either turned out to be inaccurate or Montgomery never put his stamp on the contract, because less than a week later <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/phillies-to-sign-jonathan-papelbon-.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter">the Phillies penned</a> former Red Sox stopper Jonathan Papelbon to a four year deal that, at $50,000,058 is the largest total ever guaranteed to a reliever. At $12,500,014.5 per year, the contract’s <a href="http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2000/05/most-lucrative-contracts.html">average annual value</a> falls short of only Mariano Rivera’s last two extensions. Including Papelbon and Rivera, eight of the top ten contracts for relievers in average annual value have been signed in the last four offseasons (now including 2012 with Papelbon). Teams engaged in a bidding war for late-inning arms have driven up the price of the market, to the point where I believe most clubs would be better served using arms they can develop or acquire through trades and allocating their free agent dollars elsewhere. Several factors combine to make it very tough to believe that going after the top relievers on the market remains a good investment.<br />
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<b>Total Impact</b><br />
Simply put, relievers don’t have the opportunity to influence games that players at other positions do. No reliever pitched more than Alfredo Aceves’ 93 innings in 2011, and the vast majority of relievers were in the 60-80 IP range. While most relievers on average are most effective than starters per inning pitched, the gap in total innings means they can’t produce close to the same value. National League Rookie of the Year Craig Kimbrel led all relievers with 3.2 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/">WAR</a>; the next lowest position-leading total was Mike Napoli’s 5.6 WAR, best among backstops last season. <br />
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<b>Market Competition</b><br />
Over the last few years, the market for elite relief pitchers has blown up to drastically overstate the value of these relievers. Last season, <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/year/2010/type/dollars/position/rp">ten relievers signed contracts</a> for more than $10 million in guaranteed money, led by Rafael Soriano’s $35 million deal. In addition, many of these relievers cost their new teams a draft pick as a result of being Type A free agents under the Elias free agent ranking system. Since relievers tend to receive shorter deals, many more of the relief pitchers that hit the free agent market are ranked in the top 20% or the 20% below that, the cutoffs for Type A and B free agency. As a result, seven of the relievers signed in 2010 cost their new team a selection in the 2011 Rule IV Draft, out of a total 17 Type A free agents that signed elsewhere. Teams’ spending on the last couple drafts suggest that they now value their draft picks much more highly, so this is an important consideration for any team looking to bring in a free agent. <br />
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<b>Volatility in Production</b><br />
Largely because they pitch fewer innings and therefore produce a much smaller sample of data, reliever production is much more volatile than the production of players at other positions. This manifests itself as teams have a very difficult time determining which relievers are worth signing to multiyear deals for large amounts of guaranteed money. Of the ten relief pitchers who signed for more than $10 million last offseason, only three (Mariano Rivera, Joaquin Benoit, and J.J. Putz) were among the top 30 WAR producers last season. The only relievers who appeared in the top 10 WAR producers in both 2010 and 2011 were Sean Marshall and John Axford, suggesting that it’s very difficult to accurately predict which relievers will produce consistently from year to year and which ones are likely to stumble. <br />
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For payroll-conscious teams, I believe there are three main options. First, develop young talent to populate the back of the bullpen. Complimenting Kimbrel with the dominant arms of Jonny Venters and Eric O’Flaherty, the Braves are the current poster child for this strategy. Second, teams can look to the trade market to acquire back-of-the-bullpen talent. Besides signing Putz to a $10 million deal, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers traded for David Hernandez and Kam Mickolio last offseason and Brad Ziegler at the trade deadline, meaning the turnaround of the Diamondbacks’ relief corps can at least partially be attributed to this strategy. Finally, teams can exploit the general over-reliance on save numbers and sign strong relievers with little or spotty closing experience, confident that their success in the seventh and eighth innings will carry over to ninth-inning duty. Before this season, Kyle Farnsworth had 27 career saves in 11 seasons, and only one since 2007. However, the Rays saw Farnsworth’s underlying numbers and identified a potential closer, signing him to a $3.25 million deal and solidifying their bullpen.<br />
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Overall, the Papelbon deal presents too much risk from a team perspective to be considered a shrewd move. From the unpredictability of reliever performance to the large money guaranteed to players who impact a relatively small number of at-bats, the market for the most effective free agent relievers has become so expensive that it essentially removes most of the potential value of signing these players because of the large chunk of a team’s payroll that signing would require. By using a creative solution to fill their closing role and using their free agent dollars on players at more impactful positions, teams maximize the value of their payroll and give themselves a better chance to contend.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-54432756588008174692011-11-04T14:49:00.000-07:002011-11-04T14:49:18.571-07:00Baseball’s Buffalo Bills: Where Do The Rangers Go From Here?Over the last two seasons, the Texas Rangers have proven to be the cream of the crop in the AL West, winning the division twice. They’ve taken advantage of their resulting playoff berths to emerge as the victors of the American League both times. However, on each occasion, the team’s season ended on a sour note, as they watched a National League club celebrate the World Championship glory that Texas has yet to taste in its 51-year history. Like the Bills, who lost four consecutive Super Bowls in the early 90s, Texas is developing a nasty habit of bringing their ultimate goal within reach and then falling just short.<br />
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Complicating matters is the fact that ace CJ Wilson hits the free agent market this offseason. With CC Sabathia<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/yankees-extend-cc-sabathia.html"> agreeing to terms</a> with the Yankees on the day of his opt-out decision, Wilson is now firmly situated as the best starter on the market with MLB experience, and probably the best overall starter (depending on how you feel about<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/darvish-is-not-daisuke/"> Japanese sensation</a> Yu Darvish). With a number of deep-pocketed teams looking for rotation help, Wilson’s price tag probably won’t appeal to Jon Daniels and the rest of the Rangers’ brass. Even if Wilson does fit into the Rangers’ plans for 2012, they’ll have to think long and hard about how giving out a big contract to their ace might limit their ability to hang on to other core players as the team’s young studs mature. With an arbitration class <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/11/offseason-outlook-texas-rangers.html">projected by Matt Swartz’s model</a> to cost the team an imposing $30M, Texas will have some tough decisions to make.<br />
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I believe that they’ll probably decide to let Wilson walk, as <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/10/pujols-wilson-angels-crane.html">there’s been talk</a> that they don’t want to give him more than 5 years and $75M. Wilson might be a candidate for a nine-figure deal, so if those are really the Rangers’ budget constraints Wilson will almost certainly receive bigger offers. And the truth is, that’s fine. The Rangers don’t need Wilson, as they’ll be able to compete based on their young core and incredible aptitude for player development. Perhaps no team has ridden the Latin American prospect gravy train with more results than the Rangers. The <a href="http://texas.rangers.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/index.jsp?c_id=tex">fruits of that labor</a> will soon begin to surface in Venezuelan starter Martin Perez and Cuban outfielder Leonys Martin, with others such as Jurickson Profar and Engel Beltre a little further off. All of these players were international signees, for which the credit goes to Jon Daniels’ exceptional web of scouts working to find talent in Latin America. <br />
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These players will join an already well established core. As I mentioned in my <a href="http://saberbythebay.blogspot.com/2011/10/alcs-preview-texas-rangers-vs-detroit.html">ALCS preview</a>, no other team had five or more players who produced 20 runs or more, and the five that did for the Rangers; Mike Napoli, Ian Kinsler, Adrian Beltre, Michael Young, and Josh Hamilton; are all under Texas’ control for 2012. With these players in the fold, the Rangers’ powerful offense will only continue to improve as the team’s big-league and prospect talent matures. <br />
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The Rangers also have options to replace CJ Wilson. The aforementioned Perez struggled in 2011 at Triple-A, but his 3.98 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/">FIP</a> suggests his year wasn’t as bad as his 6.43 ERA would seem. If the Rangers decide Perez needs to spend some more time at Triple-A Round Rock (or even if they don’t), they could decide to convert Neftali Feliz into a starting role. While Feliz has been closing at the major league level for the last two seasons, he was a top prospect as a starter in 2009, and the Rangers’ rotation was full at the time, prompting the conversion into a short reliever. The Rangers’ success in converting Wilson and Alexi Ogando from the bullpen to the rotation could convince them to try it again with Feliz.<br />
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If the Rangers decide they want to make a splash, they could even consider going after Darvish, if he is posted for American teams to bid on. Daniels has gone to the trouble of making the trip to Japan in order to <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas/texas-rangers/post/_/id/4866633/gm-jon-daniels-in-japan-scouting-yu-darvish">scout Darvish in person</a>. He could deem Darvish a better investment than a big deal for his free agent ace, although <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/dont-overpay-for-darvish/">as Dave Cameron has suggested</a> the market for Darvish may overstate his true value to a team as a player who still has no experience in the best league in the world. I’d trust Darvish’s NPB stats as a better indication of his true skill level than, say, a prospect’s Triple-A numbers, but there’s still a talent gap between the top Japanese league and the Majors. <br />
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I think the Rangers have the talent and the player development processes in place to get over the hump in the near future and win the franchise’s first World Series. Though it won’t necessarily happen next year, the Rangers’ window of contention is wide open and will be for long enough that I’d be a little surprised if they don’t win a championship with at least a solid portion of their current core in place. Expect October baseball in Arlington to be a regular occurrence over the next half-decade. While they fell short in 2011 after coming a strike away on two separate occasions, they’re likely to taste postseason glory sooner rather than later. <br />
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Congratulations to the Cardinals’ organization on a magical year and a title that can only be described as equal parts improbable and incredible. With Albert Pujols hitting the market, they’ve got work to do, but whatever happens in those negotiations, flags fly forever. If this is the end of King Albert’s reign in St. Louis, they couldn’t have asked for a better conclusion.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-17546299886294266652011-10-17T13:14:00.000-07:002011-10-17T13:14:02.613-07:00World Series Preview: Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis CardinalsAfter convincing Game 6 drubbings in their respective League Championship Series’ clinched a World Series berth for both the Rangers and Cardinals, we’re left with quite an interesting matchup to decide baseball’s champion. The Rangers, a team with big bats throughout the lineup but some suspect pitching, return to their second straight World Series after winning the AL West by a comfortable 10-game margin. The Cardinals, on the other hand, took advantage of a Red Sox-scale September collapse by the Braves to earn their playoff berth on the last day of the season. The Cardinals are one of few teams in baseball that may be able to mash with the Rangers, as the Pujols-Holliday-Berkman core of their lineup will be able to take advantage of the Rangers’ cozy ballpark as effectively as the Rangers can. Rangers Ballpark in Arlington leads <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor">ESPN’s Park Factors</a> with a 1.4 Run Factor and 1.5 Home Run factor, meaning roughly 50% more fly balls become home runs in Arlington as opposed to a league-neutral park. On the other hand, pitching will likely have the advantage in St. Louis, where park factors of 0.9 for runs and 0.77 for home runs suggest that games are unlikely to turn into the slugfests that might favor the Rangers. In an odd twist, Prince Fielder’s All-Star Game home run, which won the game for the National League, secures home field advantage for his division rival, as the Cardinals will have the advantage of four games at home should the series go the full seven. <br />
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Both clubs have benefited from major bullpen acquisitions this season, and have been leaning heavily on their bullpens to prevent their back-of-the-rotation starters from piling up innings when more effective arms are available. For St. Louis, <a href="http://espn.go.com/chicago/mlb/story/_/id/6808471/st-louis-cardinals-trade-colby-rasmus-toronto-blue-jays-multi-player-trade">trading rising star Colby Rasmus</a> seemed like something of a head-scratcher, but the continued emergence of Jon Jay and the success of the other arms acquired in the deal may prove to be their ticket to a World Series. Jay, a promising centerfielder in his own right, has replaced Rasmus as the team’s everyday centerfielder. Edwin Jackson has impressed in the rotation, beating Roy Oswalt in a strong divisional series outing and earning a start in Game 3 of the World Series. Marc Rzepczynski and Octavio Dotel, the other pitchers acquired in the trade, pitched three innings of one-run ball as part of the team’s seven-reliever bridge from Jackson’s minor blow-up in the first inning to the World Series in Game 6 of the NLCS. Rzepczynski has accumulated a 2.33 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/siera/">SIERA</a> in 5.2 innings this postseason, while Dotel has amassed a 1.45 in 6.2 innings. When the Cardinals can piece together runs of 4+ runs from their bullpen, much of the stress on their rotation is relieved. Since this rotation is largely mediocre without the presence of Adam Wainwright, Tony La Russa has leaned heavily on Fernando Salas, Eduardo Sanchez, Jason Motte, and Arthur Rhodes, in addition to the pitchers acquired in the Rasmus trade. <br />
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I’ve talked at length about the Rangers’ offense, and it seems likely that a new player will be able to step up and carry the team each day. In the series against the Tigers, Nelson Cruz filled that role, while Adrian Beltre, Josh Hamilton, Ian Kinsler, Mike Napoli, Michael Young, or any of a number of other sluggers are certainly capable of picking up the slack should Cruz cool off. The Rangers’ starters other than CJ Wilson aren’t exactly the types you’d expect to shut down the Cardinals’ lineup, but Rangers’ GM Jon Daniels has built a similarly effective playoff bullpen to minimize the potential negative impact of the team’s starting options after Wilson. A day before the trading deadline, <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/rangers-moving-toward-deal-for-koji-uehara.html">Daniels picked up</a> Koji Uehara from the Orioles for Chris Davis and Tommy Hunter. The next day,<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/07/rangers-acquire-mike-adams.html"> Daniels traded</a> two pitching prospects, Robbie Erlin and Joe Wieland for Mike Adams, who may be the best setup man in the league. Adams has fashioned a SIERA of under 3 for each of the past four seasons, including a 2.40 this year. Daniels finished his external bullpen tinkering by<a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/orioles-rangers-discussing-mike-gonzalez-deal.html"> adding Mike Gonzalez</a> on a waiver trade, giving the team a second lefty option in addition to Darren Oliver. Alexi Ogando, an effective member of the Rangers’ bullpen in 2010, was transitioned to the starting rotation this year extremely successfully. However, in the playoffs, Ogando isn’t needed in the rotation, and he’s been effective in short-innings duty for Ron Washington. Ogando has pitched 10.1 innings in 7 appearances for the Rangers in the postseason, with a ridiculous 1.87 SIERA to show for it. Along with Uehara, Adams, Gonzalez, and Ogando, the Rangers also have the strongest parts of their 2011 bullpen available for late-inning duty. With closer Neftali Feliz, go-to lefty Darren Oliver, and playoff revelation Scott Feldman, the Rangers are well positioned to utilize their bullpen extensively. <br />
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I’d expect this series to be very exciting, with the potential for explosive offense at almost any moment. I think the Rangers have a slight advantage in the rotation, While CJ Wilson will have a fairly even matchup with fellow ace Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia will have an advantage over Colby Lewis in Game 2, especially in St. Louis. However, I think Derek Holland will give the Rangers a chance to win against Edwin Jackson, and though he’s somewhat unheralded, Matt Harrison has been Texas’ second-best pitcher this season according to <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/">WAR</a>. He benefits from some fairly positive <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/hrs/">HR/FB</a> luck (WAR is based off of <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/fip/">FIP</a>, so this isn’t taken into account), but if Harrison can continue to avoid gopher balls in Game 4, he should have a good shot against Kyle Lohse. <br />
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Once the teams’ bottom of the rotation starters are exposed in Texas, we could see some slugfests in Arlington, making these teams’ bullpens a focal point of the series as they try to slow down the big lumber in both dugouts. I think the deciding advantage in the series will be in both the teams’ bullpen and lineup depth, and Texas has the edge in both categories. Texas’ bullpen acquisitions allow the Rangers to bring ace relievers as early as the fifth or sixth inning and be assured of quality innings for the rest of the game, which is a luxury the Cardinals’ bullpen doesn’t give them. In addition, while the cores of these teams lineups may be comparable, the Rangers have an advantage lower in the lineup. Mike Napoli, who led all MLB catchers with a 178 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/">wRC+</a> this season, hits sixth. Nelson Cruz, who hit an MLB record six homers in the ALCS to win the series MVP award, hits seventh. Though David Freese showed some offensive ability in winning the NLCS MVP, the Cardinals will counter the Rangers’ stacked lineup with Nick Punto and Yadier Molina. Though these players certainly have value, they won’t be able to match the offensive output of the Rangers’ role players. In the end, my prediction is that this series will come down to the Rangers’ offensive firepower and the Cardinals’ inferior bullpen, and Texas will slug its way to the first World Championship in the history of the franchise in the franchise’s first year under the principal ownership of pitching legend Nolan Ryan.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-23092847319503824862011-10-09T10:55:00.000-07:002011-10-09T10:55:52.868-07:00NLCS Preview: Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis CardinalsThis year’s NLCS is a matchup of two NL Central squads that just plain don’t like each other. The Brewers and Cardinals have <a href="http://bats.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/10/08/between-brewers-and-cardinals-sparks-fly-along-with-chaw/">gotten into it</a> on various occasions this season, and with a World Series berth on the line the tension only figures to increase. <br />
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<b>Offense</b><br />
The Cardinals’ 762 runs and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-is-wrc/">wRC+ </a>of 111 make them the best offensive team in the National League this season. The Redbirds bats are led by a trifecta of mashers in the heart of the order in Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday, and Lance Berkman. This could be Pujols’ last year in St. Louis, as he’ll be a free agent after the season and there are several deep-pocketed sharks in the water who will look to lock up the Cards’ iconic first baseman. Pujols had his worst season as a pro, putting up “only” 5.1 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/">WAR</a>. Funny how being the 11th most productive position player in the NL can be considered a disappointment, but that’s the level of expectation that’s been set for the best hitter of the past decade. Holliday dealt with injuries this season, appearing in only 124 games, but mashed his way to a 154 wRC+ and 5 WAR when he was in the lineup. Since 2007, no outfielder has been more productive than Holliday, who has reached that plateau through ridiculous consistency; he’s produced between 144 and 156 wRC+ for each of the last five seasons. After two consecutive down years, Berkman put up 5 WAR in 2011 on the strength of a 159 wRC+. Berkman’s trademark power disappeared last season, and his 2010 ISO of .166 was his worst mark since his rookie campaign, but his .246 this year was right in line with his career average. <br />
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Opposing the Cardinals, the Brewers’ offense features Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder. Braun may be the frontrunner for the NL MVP after a huge season in which he led the NL with a 179 wRC+. As scary a thought as this is, Braun is continuing to improve as a hitter. For each of the last five seasons he’s had an increase in walk rate and a decrease in strikeout rate, with career bests in both categories this season. A more patient, more selective Ryan Braun isn’t exactly a welcome sight for opposing pitchers. Following Braun in the Brewers’ potent lineup is Prince Fielder, who like Pujols may be moving on after this season. Seeing Fielder in another team’s uniform will be a strange sight, as the remarkably consistent Fielder has missed only 13 games since his first full season in 2006, and only a single contest over the past three years. Fielder’s as prototypical as power hitters come, and his .267 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/iso/">ISO</a> trailed only Mike Stanton among National Leaguers this season. <br />
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<b>Pitching</b><br />
Both clubs are somewhat middle-of-the-road in terms of run prevention, as the Brewers’ 638 runs allowed places them sixth in the NL, while the Cardinals’ 692 is ninth in the league. It’s almost unbelievable that the Cardinals have made it this far, as they lost their best starter before the season even started. Adam Wainwright, who has finished in the top three in NL Cy Young voting in each of the last two seasons, lost his 2011 campaign to Tommy John surgery. Without Wainwright, the Cardinals’ staff is led by Chris Carpenter and Jaime Garcia. Carpenter has stepped up in Wainwright’s absence with a 3.35 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/siera/">SIERA</a> and 5 WAR. In Game 5 of the NLDS, Carpenter outdueled Roy Halladay with a complete game 3-hit shutout, sending the Cardinals to the NLCS after a 1-0 victory. After a huge rookie year in 2010, Garcia has built on his success with another impressive campaign. Garcia’s 3.29 SIERA reflects his ability to do the two things that make pitchers successful; strike hitters out and induce groundballs. His 53.6% groundball rate is seventh in the NL, and he strikes out another 18.9% of batters, meaning less than 30% of at-bats against Garcia result in a ball in the air and the potential for serious damage. <br />
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With Fielder likely gone after the season, Brewers’ GM Doug Melvin tabbed 2011 as the team’s year to go all-in, cashing in some big time prospects to solidify his starting staff. First, Melvin sent Brett Lawrie to Toronto <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/brewers-acquire-shaun-marcum.html">in exchange</a> for Shaun Marcum in early December of last year. While Lawrie has impressed in his rookie season, Marcum has been a huge part of the Brew Crew’s retooled rotation. Marcum got roughed up in his first postseason start, but he’s been solid all year, and will likely match up against Edwin Jackson in Game 2 of the NLCS. Less than two weeks later, Melvin one-upped himself, <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/12/brewers-acquire-zack-greinke.html">sending</a> a package of prospects and Alcides Escobar to the Royals for ace Zack Greinke. Greinke’s been a man on a mission since coming to Milwaukee, as he’s ridden a league-leading 28.1% strikeout rate to a 2.51 SIERA, also best in the league. His baseball card numbers don’t reflect the incredible year he’s having, largely due to some plain old bad luck, but when Game 1 begins it’ll be the Brewers ace on the mound. Greinke and Marcum complement the Brewers’ pre-existing ace, Yovani Gallardo. Having Greinke and Marcum in the rotation takes a ton of pressure off of Gallardo, and he’s responded with a career-best 3.07 SIERA. While the Cardinals’ bats were able to overcome the Phillies’ multiple aces, the Brewers arms’ may be an equally difficult test. <br />
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A big factor in this series will be the gloves behind these two impressive rotations. At –30.8 runs, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/defense/uzr/">UZR</a> sees the Cardinals as the second worst defensive team in the NL this season. Meanwhile, the Brewers’ UZR of 10.2 makes them the fifth best defense on the Senior Circuit. If the Brewers’ gloves can help their starters out or the Cardinals’ defense becomes a handicap for their hurlers, that could be a deciding factor in which team will represent the NL in the World Series.<br />
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I’m going to take the Brewers to win in six games, with two wins coming from Greinke and one each from Marcum and Gallardo. With tensions running high, it’s almost impossible to tell what’ll happen, except that Chris Carpenter will probably talk smack and Nyjer <a href="https://twitter.com/#!/TheRealTPlush">“Tony Plush”</a> Morgan will almost certainly do something completely ridiculous. I know I’ll be watching.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-56577305533646411562011-10-07T08:49:00.000-07:002011-10-09T09:50:09.793-07:00ALCS Preview- Texas Rangers vs. Detroit TigersWhile both National League Divisional Series will be going to a decisive Game 5 tonight, the Tigers and Rangers have each earned a berth to their league’s Championship Series. We’ll take a look at how these two teams match up to try to determine which club will represent the AL in the World Series.<br />
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<b>Offense</b><br />
Each of these clubs featured one of the more prolific offenses in the AL. The Rangers scored the third most runs of any AL team over the course of the season, while the Tigers scored the fourth most. However, the gap between them is larger than that statistic might indicate. The Rangers were the only team that was able to keep up with the big-money clubs in New York and Boston, as their 855 runs were only 20 behind the league-leading Sox. After the Rangers, there’s a large gap, as the Tigers scored 787 runs to finish fourth in the league. Advanced statistics suggest the gap between the teams’ offenses is a little smaller, as the Rangers’ <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-is-wrc/">wRC+</a> of 113 outpaced the Tigers by only 4%. <br />
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The Rangers’ offense got big production from some surprising places this year, while several of the players who carried the team to last season’s World Series have taken a step back. The team’s leader in offensive value was catcher Mike Napoli. Napoli spent 2010 splitting time behind the plate in Anaheim with Jeff Mathis. This offseason, Napoli <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/blue-jays-to-acquire-mike-napoli.html">momentarily</a> went to the Blue Jays in exchange for Vernon Wells, although the deal was more about losing Wells’ massive contract and less about actually acquiring Napoli from the Jays’ perspective. Napoli was <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/01/blue-jays-rangers-to-swap-napoli-francisco.html">sent packing</a> once again almost immediately, this time in exchange for closer Frank Francisco. Napoli’s taken advantage of his new opportunity in Texas, putting up 5.6 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/">WAR</a> in only 113 games through an impressive 178 wRC+. Napoli hit 30 home runs in 432 plate appearances during the regular season. The next lowest PA total for a 30-homer hitter was 525, nearly 100 chances more than Napoli. If you picked Napoli to lead the AL in slugging this year, well… I don’t believe you. <br />
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I discussed Ian Kinsler in my AL MVP post, but he deserves another mention, as he’s been incredibly valuable on both sides of the ball and had the most prolific offensive year of his career by a longshot. His 7.7 WAR was the best mark on the club. Adrian Beltre’s 5.7 WAR led the team’s position players other than Kinsler, and his 134 wRC+ was second only to Napoli. In his first season in Texas, Beltre earned the first installment of his big multiyear deal signed last offseason and then some, putting up big offensive numbers and playing the premium defense at the hot corner we’ve come to expect from him. It’s rare that 4.2 WAR is considered a letdown, but Josh Hamilton produced less than half as much this season as his MVP campaign in 2010. While his numbers may not make him an MVP candidate again this year, he’s certainly a dangerous hitter. After a season of unrest between Michael Young and his front office that ended with him requesting a trade, Young gave the Rangers some serious reasons to retain him. Young gave the team positional flexibility and another big bat in their deep, potent lineup. The Rangers were the only team in baseball with five players who produced 20 or more runs above average on offense, and that’s not even counting Nelson Cruz, who had a big down year after a breakout 2010.<br />
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While the Rangers do have a better lineup, the Tigers aren’t exactly slouches. Led by Miguel Cabrera, the Tigers have a number of big bats in the middle of their lineup. Alex Avila’s breakout season was interrupted by a deep slump down the stretch and during the divisional series. The Tigers will have to hope he can bounce back during this series and continue to cement himself as one of the best catchers in baseball. Victor Martinez, <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2010/11/tigers-reach-agreement-with-victor-martinez.html">acquired last offseason</a> to protect Cabrera, has been effective in that role, as his 130 wRC+ this season tied a career high. Delmon Young, acquired on a <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/tigers-acquire-delmon-young.html">waiver trade</a>, has been a force in Detroit’s lineup over the final stretch of the team’s regular season, then set a franchise record with three ALDS home runs. However, he left Game 5 with an <a href="http://www.detnews.com/article/20111007/SPORTS0104/110070405/1129/SPORTS0104/Delmon-Young-makes-history-for-Tigers--leaves-early-with-injury">oblique strain</a> after his first inning home run. If the injury is significant, Young could be done for the postseason. The Tigers will be hoping it’s only a minor ding. Jhonny Peralta led all AL shortstops with 120 wRC+. Peralta put up a career-high 5.2 WAR in an outstanding season.<br />
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<b>Pitching</b><br />
C.J. Wilson is the clear ace of the Rangers staff. Wilson will hit free agency this season, and it’s been speculated that they’re likely to lose him to another team. Wilson’s 3.29 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/siera/">SIERA</a> was 10th in the AL. He’ll be followed by Derek Holland, Colby Lewis, and Matt Harrison. Holland had something of a breakout this year, putting up 3.6 WAR. He was behind only Neftali Feliz among the Rangers’ top pitching prospects in 2009 before joining the big club, and may be beginning to realize some of that potential. Harrison also had a pretty big breakout campaign, putting up 4.2 WAR in 30 starts after never topping 0.7 in his previous three seasons in the majors. Harrison is one of two Rangers who successfully moved from the bullpen to the rotation this season, as Alexi Ogando’s success as a starter has been a big storyline for this team. Ogando has been moved back to the bullpen for the playoff. He performed admirably throughout the Rangers’ series against the Rays, culminating in a spotless eighth inning of Game 4 setting up Neftali Feliz for the series ending save. Ogando and Harrison’s success may pave the way for Feliz to move to the rotation next season, but the Rangers won’t begin to discuss that decision in earnest until the end of their playoff run. <br />
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Across the diamond, Justin Verlander put together one of the best seasons from any pitcher in recent memory. His last start of the season gave him a shot at being the first 25 game winner since Bob Welch in 1990. Not much else needs to be said about the Triple Crown winner, other than that the Tigers will pitch him as many times as they possibly can in this series and every time they do he will almost certainly give them a chance to win. Verlander will be followed in the rotation by Rick Porcello, as the Tigers used both Doug Fister and Max Scherzer in their Game 5 victory. Porcello and Scherzer are both young guys with big stuff, but who haven’t seen the results to match their potential yet. Both put up 2.7 WAR this season, Fister may end up being the most important acquisition by any team at this year’s trade deadline, although Hunter Pence will certainly give him a run for his money. Fister has produced 5,6 WAR this season, including 2.4 and a 2.63 SIERA in 70.1 innings with Detroit. These starters will hand the ball to the Tigers’ impressive bullpen, led by Jose “Papa Grande” Valverde. Valverde certainly has a tendency to make the ninth inning a bit of an adventure, but he’s 51-for-51 in save opportunities this season after closing out the ALDS in New York.<br />
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Home field advantage, which the Rangers clinched over the Tigers on the final day of the season, could be a huge deciding factor in this series. In the bandbox in Arlington, the Rangers’ potent office could take over games and simply out-mash the Tigers. However, in the expansive Comerica Park, the Tigers’ pitching will have a decided advantage. I think the Tigers will win at least two of their three home games, and I will be very surprised if Justin Verlander doesn’t give his team a fairly good chance to win at least one of the games in Arlington. If the Rangers can take the other three games in Arlington, that would likely set up a Verlander vs. Wilson Game 7 in Texas for all the marbles. In a deciding game, with the team on his back, it’s hard to bet against the best pitcher in the American League, so I’m going to take the Tigers to advance in what should be a thoroughly entertaining series.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-32418049699790330812011-10-05T11:16:00.000-07:002011-10-05T11:16:34.245-07:00The AL MVP ConversationThe American League MVP race this year is a little more complicated than the competition for the prize on the Senior Circuit. Using the same framework as with the NL to evaluate which players are or are not deserving candidates for the award, I’ll run through the top contenders and give you my pick for the best player in the AL this season. <br />
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Looking at the AL <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/">WAR</a> leaderboard, the first obvious observation is that each of the top three producers in the AL are currently enjoying cold drinks and tee times. For Jose Bautista, missing the playoffs was no surprise. For Jacoby Ellsbury and Dustin Pedroia, the realization that they wouldn’t be playing October baseball came at the end of the Red Sox September meltdown that has been well-documented elsewhere. At 9.4 WAR, Ellsbury was the biggest producer in the league by a full win. He certainly can’t be blamed for the team’s collapse; his September <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/what-is-wrc/">wRC+</a> of 176 was his second best of any month in 2011. <br />
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Ellsbury and Pedroia are in the mold of candidates I prefer, as they provide value on both sides of the ball. Both play premium defensive positions, play well above-average defense at those positions, and are offensive forces. Though Pedroia’s 2011 was better than his 2008 MVP campaign, Ellsbury was the best player on the Red Sox this season.<br />
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As recently as the All-Star break, Bautista would’ve been my choice for the MVP. However, he’s taken a step back during the second half, and while he’s still the best hitter in the AL, the gap between Bautista and the rest of the pack closed somewhat. Since he provides very little value on defense and plays for a team well outside the playoff picture, I’m gonna say this isn’t Bautista’s year. <br />
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After Pedroia, a trio of playoff bats populate the league’s WAR leaders. Ian Kinsler’s impressive 7.7 WAR paced the Rangers to a division title, as he put together one of the quietest 30/30 seasons in the history of baseball. Kinsler’s <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/defense/uzr/">UZR</a> of 15.0 may be somewhat suspect (as all single-year UZR numbers are), especially considering his 2010 mark of only 2.1. My guess is that his true defensive value is somewhere in between. As a second baseman with power and speed, that’s incredibly valuable.<br />
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Miguel Cabrera’s 7.3 WAR led the Tigers to the playoffs, and his 177 wRC+ was second only to Bautista’s. Cabrera’s always had prodigious power, but over the past two years he’s done a great job pairing that power with patience. After large increases in his walk rate in both 2010 and this season, Cabrera’s .448 OBP led the American League, which may come as a pretty big surprise to anyone who has followed his career up to this point. However, Cabrera plays bad defense at a position where the expected levels of offensive output are incredibly high. Though he’s one of the most impressive offensive forces in the league, a one-dimensional player isn’t going to be my MVP in a year with as many two-way contributors as this season.<br />
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The final position player I’ll discuss is Curtis Granderson. Granderson had a breakout year with the bat, producing the best power output of his career while bumping his walk rate to a career high as well. Granderson’s defense in centerfield graded out five runs below average, but his three-year average UZR is exactly league-average, so I’m willing to give him the benefit of the doubt and call him a scratch defender. Granderson’s 146 wRC+ is second only to Ellsbury among AL players at premium defensive positions, and his 41 homers were second in the league. <br />
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It’s very rare that I see a pitcher as an MVP contender. When you only play in one out of every five of your team’s games, it’s difficult to have the kind of impact that everyday players can produce. However, Justin Verlander has spent all of 2011 forcing the issue. Verlander led the league with 250 strikeouts in 251 innings, putting up 7 WAR in the process. Verlander was the perfect combination of lucky and good. Along with his league-leading strikeout total, Verlander had a top-10 walk rate, and his 2.84 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/siera/">SIERA</a> led the league. In addition, his .236 <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/babip/">BABIP</a> and 80.3%<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/pitching/lob/"> strand rate</a> padded his numbers, creating a perfect storm of ridiculous awesomeness. Living in Ann Arbor, it’s tough not to hop on the “Verlander for MVP” bandwagon.<br />
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Unfortunately for the large majority of my peers at the University of Michigan, I’m going to go with the numbers and pick Jacoby Ellsbury as the deserving recipient of the AL MVP. Although the Red Sox missed out on the postseason, Ellsbury produced all year, and even more so when it counted. He put up some incredible numbers down the stretch, during the team’s most important games of the season, and although the team’s pitching fell apart, he provided a ton of value that really should have led the team to a playoff berth. Ellsbury produced a full win more than any other AL player, and nearly two full wins more than any player participating in the postseason. He played world-class defense at a premium defensive position, while putting up incredible offensive numbers across the board. Though Boston won’t have a shot at a championship this year, their centerfielder was good enough that I believe he should take home some hardware anyway. <br />
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I unfortunately got somewhat swamped at the beginning of the playoffs, and wasn't able to put together a playoff preview. When the divisional series are completed, I'll take a closer look at the championship series for both leagues. For what it's worth, I would've picked the Rays, Tigers, Brewers, and Phillies to advance to the ALCS and NLCS.Doug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.com0