Playoff Recap: 10/18

Game 3 of the ALCS took place last night, and it was much closer for most of the game than the 8-0 scoreline would suggest. Cliff Lee was dominant and the Rangers maintained a 2-run lead for nearly all of the contest before heaping on with a huge ninth inning. 

The Rangers opened the scoring against Andy Pettitte in the first frame, as Michael Young hit a one-out single and was followed by Josh Hamilton’s second home run of the series to make the game 2-0. That’s how it would stay until the ninth inning, when the Rangers really broke it open. 

Boone Logan entered the game to pitch to Josh Hamilton, who smacked a ball into the gap in left. Brett Gardner took a bad angle on the ball, allowing it to get to the wall and Hamilton to head to second with a stand-up double. Vlad singled off of the normally stingy David Robertson, advancing Hamilton to third, and Nelson Cruz drove him in with a single. After Ian Kinsler struck out, Cruz took second on a wild pitch, setting up an intentional walk to David Murphy. Bengie Molina and Mitch Moreland hit back to back singles, making the score 6-0 and bringing up the top of the lineup. Elvis Andrus then doubled, scoring Molina and ending Robertson’s night. Sergio Mitre allowed Moreland to score on a wild pitch, but got Michael Young and Josh Hamilton to finally end the inning with the score at 8-0. Neftali Feliz sat the Yankees down in order in the ninth to end the game, giving the Rangers a 2-1 series lead. 

Let’s go inside the numbers to check out the people and plays that made it happen.

Yankees vs. Rangers:

WPA Leader: Cliff Lee (.572)

Lee had his third stellar start of the postseason, giving up two hits in eight innings and striking out 13. Lee’s pitched 24 innings in his three starts and has struck out 34 while allowing two runs, 13 hits, and a lone walk to Mark Teixeira that came last night. He’s been the MVP of the playoffs so far, and should the Rangers go on to the World Series, he’ll be a huge reason why. Another in a series of great pickups by GM Jon Daniels and the rest of the Rangers' management team, who I consider to be one of the best in baseball.

Biggest Plays:

Josh Hamilton’s homer in the first inning to start the scoring was the only big probability swing in this game. The shot added .157 to the Rangers’ win expectancy as Hamilton continued to build on his fantastic playoff performance so far.

The Goat: 

Derek Jeter went 0 for 4 with a hat trick, accounting for two of Lee’s K’s and going down to lead off the ninth against Feliz as well. The legend of Jeter stepping up when it counts as an exceptional playoff performer isn’t really based on anything factual. In his 16 seasons, Jeter’s put up a regular season wRC+ of 128. His playoff wRC+, in a total of 144 games? 128.

Playoff Recap: 10/17

Last night was game 2 of the NLCS, with the Giants’ Jonathan Sanchez opposing Roy Oswalt of the Phillies. Despite the final score, this game was pretty close for a long time, with the score 2-1 going into the bottom of the 7^th. However, the Phillies put up a 5-run 7^th inning to put this one out of reach, recording a 6-1 win. 

The Phillies struck first, as Sanchez had a wild first in which he walked three, including Jimmy Rollins with the bases loaded. Sanchez, however, settled down, and this was a 1-1 game for some time.

In the 5^th, however, Cody Ross had the Giants’ first hit for the second day in a row, which for the second day in a row was a solo home run. Ross has been playing out of his mind for the Giants. Never will you see a man as locked in as Cody Ross has been so far. Nothing more needs to be said.

The Phillies took back their one-run lead in the bottom of the inning, as Shane Victorino hit a leadoff double and eventually scored on Placido Polanco’s sac fly. Ryan Howard followed with a single, but no more damage would be done. 

The Phillies cracked it open in the 7^th. Roy Oswalt singled to lead off, ending Sanchez’s evening. Ramon Ramirez entered, and Victorino bunted Oswalt to third. Chase Utley was then intentionally walked and Ramirez allowed a single to score Oswalt. Jeremy Affeldt came in and allowed a double-steal to put runners at second and third, but struck out Ryan Howard. He intentionally walked Jayson Werth before being replaced by Santiago Casilla. Casilla promptly allowed a three-run double to Jimmy Rollins, making the game 6-1, before Raul Ibañez lined out to third base. 

That’s how the game would end, as this series will be going back to San Francisco tied at one. Let’s break it down:

Giants vs. Phillies

WPA Leader: Roy Oswalt (.354)

Oswalt went 8 innings, allowing one run while striking out nine, so it’s no surprise he was the most impactful player in game 2. After having the worst outing of any Phillies pitcher in their divisional series sweep, he was fantastic last night.

Biggest Plays: 

Cody Ross’ solo shot to tie the game up added .136 to the Giants’ win expectancy, allowing him to put up the best WPA of any San Francisco player for the second day in a row. Rollins’ 3-run double to break the game open for the Phillies was second, at .092.

The Goat: 

Jayson Werth went 0 for 3, walking once but taking two strikeouts, including one in the first inning with the bases loaded that was the biggest negative WPA play of the game.

Playoff Recap: 10/16

Yesterday saw the NLCS open with a mouthwatering Lincecum-Halladay matchup, while the Rangers and Yankees played game 2 of the ALCS with the Rangers looking to tie the series at one. 

ALCS game 2, in Arlington, featured Colby Lewis for the Rangers going up against Phil Hughes for New York. The Rangers got aggressive and got on the board early, with Elvis Andrus stealing home in the first to put them up 1-0. They added two in the second and another two in third, eventually running away with this one 7-2. The series will come back to New York tied, with Cliff Lee facing off against Andy Pettitte. Should be a great game. 

In Philadelphia, Lincecum and Halladay toed the rubber looking to get their respective teams out to a lead in the NLCS’ critical game 1. Cody Ross gave the Giants an early lead with a solo shot in the third, the Giants’ first hit off Halladay. Carlos Ruiz led off the bottom of the third with a home run of his own to tie the game.

Ross hit another solo shot in the 5^th to return the Giants’ one-run lead. Then, in the 6^th, Buster Posey singled with two out. Burrell followed with a double to score Posey, and Uribe singled him home to give the Giants a 4-1 lead. 

The Phillies would close the gap in the bottom of the 6^th, with Jayson Werth’s 2-run shot making it a 4-3 game. That’s how it would stay, as Brian Wilson recorded a four-out save to give the Giants the win. 

The players and plays that shined from last night:

Yankees-Rangers:

WPA Leader: Elvis Andrus and Colby Lewis (.164)

Andrus went 2 for 4 with a walk and stole two bases, including home once. Lewis pitched 5.2 innings of two-run ball to get the win.

Biggest Plays:

David Murphy’s home run to double the Rangers’ lead from 1-0 to 2-0 had a WPA of .092, the highest of any play in this game. No play provided a huge WPA swing, as this was never an extremely close game (average LI of 0.56).

The Goat:

Phil Hughes put up a -.290, throwing 4 innings and giving up 7 runs. If the Yankees are going to have a chance this series, they’re going to have to get some better starting pitching than they have so far. Their bullpen has pitched 9 innings in the last two days, so they’re going to need to conserve their arms by having their starters pitch deeper into games. 

Giants-Phillies:

WPA Leader: 

Brian Wilson’s 1.1 scoreless innings to end the game made him the WPA leader, his .247 WPA mostly due to a 3.07 average LI during his time on the mound. Honorable mentions go to Cody Ross, whose 2 home runs propelled him to a .235 WPA, and Jayson Werth, whose own 2-run homer allowed him to lead the Phillies with a .225 WPA.

Biggest Plays: 

Jayson Werth’s two-run homer was the biggest swing in this game, with a WPA of .189. The home run really got the Phillies back into this game, and while they could not pull off the comeback, it turned this one into a real nailbiter for the last few innings. Cody Ross’s home runs gave him WPA’s of .112 and .140, while Pat Burrell’s double was good for .136 WPA. 

The Goat: 

Shane Victorino had a day to forget, going 0 for 5 with 2 strikeouts and a double-play grounder. After his game-ending strikeout against Brian Wilson, Victorino’s WPA stood at an ugly -.271.

Playoff Recap: 10/15

Yesterday brought the opening game of this year’s ALCS between the Yankees and Rangers. Christopher John Wilson and Carsten Charles Sabathia faced off in a battle of lefties who like to be called by their first initials. The game started extremely strong for the Rangers, but the Yankees pounded the Rangers’ pen and pulled off an epic comeback for a 6-5 win. This is one of those games where the win probability graph really does tell the whole story. 

They say you have to get to the good ones early, before they get in a groove, and the Rangers did just that with CC last night. Sabathia struggled with his control in the first inning and throughout the ballgame. He walked four, including Elvis Andrus to lead off the game. Michael Young singled and Josh Hamilton hit a ball that got into the crowd about as quick as I’ve ever seen one go. When Hamilton gets good wood on the ball, it just seems to jump off the bat. The Rangers would then load the bases on a Nelson Cruz single and walks to Ian Kinsler and Matt Treanor. Sabathia then threw his 36^th pitch and 20^th ball of the inning to the backstop. One fortuitous bounce later Posada flipped the ball home to Sabathia, who made a great play to tag out Nelson Cruz coming home and end the inning. 

The Rangers would tack on in the fourth. Matt Treanor singled with one out. After a Cantu flyout, Elvis Andrus singled and Michael Young doubled to bring home Treanor and Andrus and put the score at an almost insurmountable 5-0.

However, with an offense like the one in pinstripes, no lead is really insurmountable. The Yankees proved this last night by bringing it back. It all started in the 7^th, as CJ Wilson allowed a Cano leadoff home run to put the score at 5-1. After going quietly, the Yankees would continue their comeback the next inning, when Brett Gardner singled to lead off. Jeter followed with a double to score the Gardner and Wilson’s night was over. Darren Oliver came in and promptly walked Swisher and Teixeira to load the bases. Darren O’Day allowed an A-Rod single to make the score 5-4, and Robinson Cano followed with off Clay Rapada a single to tie it up, putting runners at first and third with no one down in the inning. Marcus Thames singled to put the Yankees ahead 6-5 after Derek Holland took the ball (if you’re keeping score at home, that’s the Rangers’ fifth pitcher of the inning and they don’t have an out yet), but Holland would retire Posada, Granderson, and Gardner in order to limit the damage to a one-run deficit.

That’s how the game would stay, with the Yankees holding on for a great win in a game they looked destined to drop. A look inside the numbers at the players and plays that made it happen:

Yankees vs. Rangers

WPA Leader: Robinson Cano (.293)

Cano came up huge for the Yankees, as he has all season. He started the comeback with his leadoff jack in the 7^th. Then, he delivered the game-tying single in the Yankees 8^th-inning rally, bringing home Teixeira to make this a 5-5 game. Cano and Hamilton were my picks for “should be” and “will be” AL MVP this year, and in this game both showed why. 

Biggest Plays: Cano’s single was a huge swing in the Yankees’ favor, as it tied the game and put a man on third with none down. By improving the Bombers’ win expectancy from 47.5% to 74.1%, Cano was credited with .266 WPA, a huge part of his total for this game. Other big plays involved Rodriguez’s single in the at-bat before Cano’s (.166 WPA) and Josh Hamilton’s 3-run homer (.131).

The Goat: 

I expected the winner here to be big CC, who game up 5 runs and only got through 4 innings, throwing 93 pitches (42 of them outside the strike zone). Sabathia had a total WPA of -.237, so he didn’t exactly perform like the ace the Yankees were hoping they’d get. However, Clay Rapada took him off the hook for last night’s goat award by coming in, allowing Cano’s game-tying single, and then exiting without ever recording an out. Rapada had a total WPA of -.266, and the Rangers’ pen put up a total of -.496. Wilson had a .153 after his 7 innings and 3 earned runs, and Holland was the only other Ranger pitcher to put up a positive number, at .110 with no earned runs in two innings of relief. 

Playoff Preview: Giants-Phillies

This year’s NLCS will feature the Philadelphia Phillies and the San Francisco Giants. The Phillies, looking to establish themselves as a sort of NL mini-dynasty by representing the senior circuit in the World Series for the 3^rd consecutive year, will look to use their “Big Three” of Halladay, Oswalt, and Hamels to keep the Giants in check while letting their powerful lineup go to work. The Giants, a definite underdog in this series, will counter with a strong staff of their own and some surprisingly opportunistic hitting from the middle of their lineup. 

The Phillies .328 wOBA is fourth in the NL, and they’re top 5 in the league in nearly every offensive category. Their defense is pretty average, as their –5.8 regular season UZR will attest. Their starters’ FIP of 3.95 is fairly pedestrian, but the playoffs will allow them to shrink their rotation to four starters, with three of them pitching twice should the series go to seven games. When your top three starters are three of the best in the league, as is the case for Philadelphia, that’s a pretty big deal.

The Giants are 9^th in the league in wOBA, so their offense isn’t exactly the strongest facet of their game. However, these numbers can be deceptive, as the Giants’ lineup is very different from the toothless one we saw for most of the beginning of the year. Pat Burrell, a midseason acquisition, has been reborn in San Francisco and put up a huge year. Cody Ross has come in and contributed enormously. Andres Torres has discovered his form and become one of the best everyday centerfielders in the NL, and Juan Uribe has displaced Edgar Renteria at short, making use of many at-bats that were being wasted on the over-the-hill Renteria. The Giants’ 56.4 UZR is second-best in the NL, and along with their skilled collection of starters and strong pen, that could make them very dangerous to the Phils. Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Jonathan Sanchez, and Madison Bumgarner, the four Giants penned in to start games this series, have FIPs of 3.15, 3.65, 4.00, and 3.66 respectively. 

Game 1, at Citizen’s Bank Park, will line up a dream matchup, with two-time defending Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum going up against this year’s likely NL Cy Young, Roy Halladay. This game is almost certain to be a pitcher’s duel, as in their last starts, Halladay threw a no-hitter and Lincecum pitched a complete-game 2-hit 14-strikeout gem. This game will really come down to whichever team is able to scrape across a run or two, because I don’t think it’ll take much more than that.

For the second game, also in Philly, Bruce Bochy has announced that he’ll be pitching Jonathan Sanchez instead of Matt Cain, who would usually go after Lincecum. Bochy’s said that he wants to break up his righties by inserting the lefty Sanchez, which could be a good strategy considering the largely left-handed heart of the Phillies’ order. However, it’s also a huge vote of confidence for the young Sanchez, who has always frustrated Giants’ fans with his lack of control and composure. Sanchez has incredible stuff, but his location is the difference between a no-hitter (I attended his last season, and it was probably the most exciting baseball moment of my life) and one of his patented 7-walk starts where he gets 10 outs and is done by the 4^th inning having thrown 90 pitches. However, Sanchez was fantastic in the last month of the season, and he’s earned the chance to work some playoff magic. Opposing Sanchez will be Roy Oswalt, acquired midseason from the Astros. Oswalt is as good a second starter as there is in the NL, so this game will likely be another relatively low-scoring one.

As the series moves back to San Francisco for game 3, the string of fantastic pitching matchups will continue, with Matt Cain taking on Cole Hamels. Cain has been something of a second ace for the Giants, putting up a 3.65 FIP and 3.14 ERA this season. He’s been very good at home, with a 3.42 FIP in San Francisco this year. Hamels has put up very similar numbers, with a 3.06 ERA and 3.67 FIP. Should be another great duel.

Game 4 will feature Madison Bumgarner and Joe Blanton. Blanton’s something of an odd man out for the Phillies, as he’s not nearly on the same level as the rest of the starters the Phillies will be sending out. Bumgarner, on the other hand, has been as good as anyone on the Giants’ staff since his late-June callup. He’s had a 3.00 ERA/ 3.66 FIP this year in 18 starts, and put up a 1.95 FIP in five September starts. Throw in his series-clinching start in Atlanta in which he gave up 2 runs in 6 innings in his first taste of playoff baseball, and he’s gotta be the favorite in this contest. After watching the kid through the Giants’ minor league system and in the majors, I can tell you there’s not question in my mind he’s going to be special, and really already is. 

After that, the rotations will turn over, setting up Cain vs. Hamels for a potential game 7. With all the mouthwatering pitching matchups, I can’t imagine this not being a great series to watch. The question will be in the teams’ ability to break through against these pitchers. I’m gonna guess that this series goes seven, with the Giants winning games 1, 3, and 4 and the Phillies taking Oswalt’s starts in games 2 and 6 and Halladay’s in game 5. Game 7 is gonna be a close one, but I’m going to say Matt Cain shuts down the Phillies to send the Giants to the World Series. Am I biased? Sure. But before you go with the pundits and call it for the Phillies in five, take a second. The Giants’ are a more dangerous team than most people realize, because pitching and defense are the key to winning in the playoffs.