The Perfect Pickup: Milwaukee Brewers

The Milwaukee Brewers’ offense is good enough to compete, today. Built around the strong foundation of Ryan Braun and Prince Fielder, this is a lineup with some pop, and they got results, finishing fourth in the NL in runs scored and second in wOBA. However, on the mound, they’ve got some serious issues. Jeff Suppan, signed to the largest contract in team history on a four-year deal in 2007, was demoted to the bullpen and then released early in the season. Dave Bush, whose 31 starts tied him for second in the rotation, is a free agent. Manny Parra, whose strong 2008 gave Brewers fans hope he could top the rotation along with Yovani Gallardo, has been moving in the wrong direction since then, starting in the bullpen this season, moving back into the rotation for 16 starts, and then being demoted back to relief duties after putting up a 5.24 FIP as a starter. Right now, they’ve got Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson penciled into the rotation. Other than that, it’s anyone’s guess who will be taking the mound for the Brewers.

Fortunately, they’ve got some money to play with. Suppan’s contract was bought out, Trevor Hoffman has become a free agent after a disappointing season, and several other players have come off the books as well. Their payroll has been rising quickly, and after paying just over $27.5 million to field a team in 2004, 2010 marked the first time payroll has eclipsed $90 million. They have less than $30 million committed to their 2011 team so far, so while there are many holes to fill, they’ve got the cash to fill them and make a few splashes on the free agent market.

The first priority, however, should be signing at least two (and possibly three starters. They’ll need a veteran inning-eater to give them some quality innings. Carl Pavano could fit the bill. Pavano started 32 games last year and 33 the year before, with a FIP around 4 both seasons. Pavano’s never been a huge strikeout guy, but he was able to increase his ground ball rate last year to 51.2%, the highest of his career. Brewers’ middle infielders Rickie Weeks and Alcides Escobar are both plus defenders, so Pavano’s high groundball rate could play well for the team. However, Pavano is a type A free agent and he has been offered arbitration by the Twins, so he would likely cost the Brewers their second-round pick, as their first one is protected (it’s in the top half of the first round). If they are set on keeping that pick, they could have made a stronger push for Hiroki Kuroda, who would have been my top choice for them had he not already inked to remain in Los Angeles, or Jon Garland, who also signed with the Dodgers. At this point, Kevin Millwood is probably the best non type-A option who fulfills this need.

I’d also look to take a flier on one of the many reclamation projects out there. Taking a gamble on a scrap-heap starter like Erik Bedard, Jeff Francis, Jeremy Bonderman, or Chris Young could pay huge dividends if one of these players manages to stay healthy and effective, but Brandon Webb is the undisputed top pitcher in this category. Webb was shelved for 17 months after an elbow surgery, but all reports suggest his recovery is on track. The sinkerballer’s groundball tendencies would play well with the Brewers, and his ceiling is as high as any free agent starter’s not named Cliff Lee. As MLBTR’s Free Agent Stock Watch notes, he finished first or second in Cy Young voting each season from 2006 to 2008.

So the Brewers need two pitchers (at least) and my strategy would be to take one “sure thing” and then take a flier on a risk/reward type of guy. For me, their Perfect Pickups are Pavano and Webb.

The Perfect Pickup: Houston Astros

The Houston Astros will be looking to improve on the anemic offense they ran out in 2010. Their 608 total runs tied them for third to last in baseball with the Orioles, and their .115 ISO was better than only the Mariners. After El Caballo’s subpar season, the Astros should be looking to add an outfielder with some power, and this year’s corner outfield crop offers several attractive options. Some will undoubtedly fall through the cracks, and could provide great value buys for Houston.

For me, the best option could end up being Pat Burrell. “Pat the Bat” is 34, so he may still have some strong baseball in him. He’ll likely get lost in a relatively strong corner outfield free agent class, so he could be on the cheap side, and he put up 2.7 WAR in 96 games with the World Champion San Francisco Giants after being released by the Rays. He had 18 home runs with the Giants, so he could provide a sorely needed dose of power. He was pretty bad in his season and a bit with the Rays (-0.6 WAR in 146 total games between 2009 and 2010), but I believe in his resurgence. His BABIP and HR/FB were both in line with his career totals in his time with the Giants. He’s taken a bit of a dip in his line drive rate, as last season was his worst career total, but if he can get that more in line with his career total, he could have even more success next season. Burrell also had the best defensive season of his career last year, with a 4.9 UZR in left. I’d be surprised if that sticks, but if he can be a close-to-average defender, his offense can make him a valuable asset to a potential employer. Given that he will likely be fairly inexpensive both in terms of dollars and years, Burrell could be a great fit for the ‘Stros.

There will likely be several attractive options for the Astros, but they should be looking to pick up a corner outfielder with some power on the cheap. In this year’s class, the option that best fits that description may very well be Pat Burrell. That makes Burrell the Astros’ Perfect Pickup.

The Perfect Pickup: Chicago Cubs

This offseason, the Cubs must consider filling a hole that hasn’t been an issue for them for over five years. Since 2004, Derrek Lee has held down first base for the Lovable Losers. However, after moving Lee to the Braves on August 18th for three prospects, the Cubs were left with Xavier Nady and Micah Hoffpauir as first-base options. Nady entered free agency this offseason, leaving Hoffpauir penciled in as the starter. After a strong showing in AAA, the 30-year-old produced –0.5 WAR in 24 games between first base and the outfield. He’s been mediocre defensively in his limited time at first, putting up a –4.3 UZR in 45 games (30 starts) over the last 3 years. Though the sample size is small, he certainly doesn’t seem spectacular with the leather, and his bat hasn’t done much to make up for his defensive shortcomings. He had a .222 wOBA last year, and although his low BABIP and HR/FB may suggest a bounce-back, it probably won’t be enough to make him a productive first baseman on a large-market and big-money club like the Cubs. If Chicago wants to compete, they’ll need to add a first baseman who can anchor the middle of the order along with Marlon Byrd and Aramis Ramirez.

For me, they’ve got two main options, and which one they take really depends on where they feel they are as a franchise. If they truly believe they’re one big acquisition away, which they very well might, they should work to bring Adam Dunn to Wrigley. Dunn has consistently been among the top power producers in the league over the past seven years, with “consistently” being the operative word. Dunn had 46 home runs in 2004, then put up 4 straight seasons of exactly 40 home runs. Now, he’s just finished his second straight season with 38 bombs. Dunn has managed all this while playing 150 games or more in each of those seven years, so he’s been a model of consistency. With Dunn, you’re going to get a ton of strikeouts and the low batting average may be a turn-off for many fans, but he keeps his walks high enough to put up a career .381 OBP. Dunn’s walk rate actually dropped to a career low last year, at 11.9% (compared to a career 16.3%). This was mostly due to a career high O-Swing of 28.5%, over 10% more than his career 18.4%. If Dunn can cut back on the cuts he takes on balls outside the zone, he can get his walk rate back in line with his career totals and provide the menacing presence in the heart of the lineup he’s known to be.

Last year also brought another revelation for Dunn, as he played his first year as a regular first baseman, marking the first time he’s played more games at first than in the outfield. Possibly somewhat surprisingly, the defensive returns were actually pretty reasonable, as he put up a UZR of –3.3 in 153 games. His career first-base UZR is –14.4 in 347 games, so we’ll have to see whether this trend holds up, but it’s certainly possible that Dunn has been able to focus on playing first, having been relieved of outfield duties, and has been able to improve his glove through that increased focus.

However, if they believe they’re going to need a huge offseason to be a contender, they’ll need to limit their spending in free agency on any one position and instead take some big-risk, big-reward fliers that they believe could pay off huge, to the tune of Aubrey Huff’s 2010. For me, that conversation begins and ends with Carlos Peña. Peña is coming off his worst year as a Ray, in which he had neither skill (.326 wOBA, career .360) or luck (.222 BABIP, career .279, second worst to only Aaron Hill among hitters with >300 ABs) on his side. If the Cubs decide they believe in a bounce-back from the 32-year-old Peña, they will be hoping he returns to the form he had with the Rays from 2007-2009, when he put up 4.2 WAR per year. He has two skills in his toolbox; the ability to hit for a ton of power, and the defense that won him the 2008 AL Gold Glove at first. He’s hovered around average in UZR for the past few seasons, but a strong season with the glove and bat (and one that he’s certainly capable of) could make him a huge bargain for the Cubs.

If the Cubs decide they need an upgrade at first (and in my estimation, they could certainly use one), Peña and Dunn will best be able to provide the production they need in the middle of the lineup. For that reason, depending on the front office’s perspective and future outlook for the franchise, either Peña or Dunn are the Cubs’ Perfect Pickup. I still believe that they’re far enough away from being a true contender that I’m going to pick Peña, but I wouldn’t fault Jim Hendry and his staff for taking the optimistic path and going with Dunn. Or trading for Adrian Gonzalez. That’d work too.

I'd also like to stop for a moment and congratulate my former employers at Octagon for working out what looks like a great deal for both club and player in sending Victor Martinez to Detroit on a 4-year deal. Additionally, a big welcome back to the Bay to Aubrey Huff. Glad to have Huff-Daddy on board for the title defense.

The Perfect Pickup: Cleveland Indians

The Indians could use some improvement pretty much everywhere. Shin-Soo Choo and Grady Sizemore are locked into two outfield positions. Carlos Santana and Matt LaPorta are both highly regarded as prospects, so both will get every opportunity to succeed on this rebuilding squad. Other than that, the lineup is pretty much fungible. Outside of Fausto Carmona and Chris Perez, no pitcher has an ingrained spot either, so the Indians can really play the market and find value wherever they believe it’s available.


However, I think the position where they can best upgrade is third base. First of all, it’s a strong free agent class, with type A’s Adrian Beltre and Miguel Tejada, type B’s Felipe Lopez and Juan Uribe, and other interesting players including Jorge Cantu and Ty Wigginton. Offense is probably their biggest issue, as they scored only 644 runs last season (5th lowest in the league). Third base was a major issue, as Jayson Nix, penciled in as the starter at the hot corner, only put up 0.2 WAR in 78 games with the Indians last season, and –0.1 overall. Nix is 28 and has been below replacement level in two out of three seasons as a major leaguer. If the Indians can replace him with an offensive upgrade, I think they’ll definitely take the opportunity.


I’m going to suggest they take a run at Felipe Lopez. Lopez should be on the cheap side due to a weak 2010 and a strong market, and he looks poised for a big bounce-back. His .273 BABIP was far below his career .316, and in addition to playing third, Lopez has the versatility to play second and short. Lopez had a great 2009, putting up 3.9 WAR and 116 wRC+. Lopez may be my candidate for the player most likely to mirror Aubrey Huff’s 2010 next season, as he’ll be coming off a poor season but has shown in the past that he’s capable of being a very valuable piece for a strong team. He’s only 30, so he should still have some strong baseball left in him. He could provide a great return on what could be a very small investment by the Indians, making him a potentially very valuable player.


Lonnie Chisenhall, who I discussed in my Wait Til Next Year, will likely be ready within the next two years, but signing Lopez for a year to bridge the gap could allow the Indians to wait for Chisenhall to be ready and make the transition smoother. To improve the poor production they got from third base next year and add another productive asset in the lineup, the Perfect Pickup for the Indians is Felipe Lopez.

The Perfect Pickup: Washington Nationals

The Washington Nationals are in something of a transitional period as a franchise. They haven’t been above .500 since 2003, when they were still in Montreal. They have been subject to relatively low attendance numbers the last few years, but they seem to be gaining an ever-growing foothold in the Washington market. This is a team with young talent (Strasburg, Harper) and established superstars (Ryan Zimmerman). They seem to be just a few pieces away from contending for the city of Washington’s first pennant since 1933, when the Washington Senators (the version that later became the Twins) took the AL. To really get them moving in the right direction and reestablish Washington as a true baseball town, however, I’m of the opinion that this team should try to make a big splash.

The place to do it, I believe, is in the starting rotation. Nationals starters 8.5 WAR in 2010 was the fifth-worst total in baseball, and their 4.40 FIP ranked them fourth-worst in the NL. Nats starters struck out just 5.61 batters per nine, third worst in baseball, and allowed a 20.5% line drive rate that was the worst in the game by almost a full percentage point.

The Nationals need a starter who can cause a 2008 election-sized splash in DC and put some serious butts in the seats. They need an ace to top the rotation while Stephen Strasburg rehabilitates after his Tommy John surgery that is projected to cost him most, if not all, of his 2011 season, and then take some pressure off of Strasburg by anchoring the rotation as Strasburg develops into the world-class hurler he’s expected to be. They’ve got some money coming off the books, with Adam Dunn and Christian Guzman (their two biggest contracts in 2010) becoming free agents, and they’ve increased payroll in each of the last four years, which gives me the sense that they’re trying to get their payroll more in line with other large-market teams.

As I’m sure you’ve guessed by now, my suggestion for Nationals brass is to go after the biggest prize there is on the market. Adding Cliff Lee adds instant legitimacy to the team, showing fans and the rest of the league alike that the Nationals are serious about contending for a championship both now and in the future. I don't need to tell you how good Lee is; his numbers read like a video game. 7.1 WAR. 2.58 FIP. 18 walks in 212.1 innings. Lee is the biggest name on this year’s free agent market, and though many believe the Yankees will simply pay whatever it takes to get him, I have a feeling that the conversations at Yankee Stadium aren’t quite that simple.

Take a quick look at the Yankees future payroll obligations, specifically the 2013 and 2014 columns. In 2013, the Yankees will pay A-Rod 29 million dollars, CC just over 24, Teixeira slightly more than 23, 16 to AJ Burnett, and will almost certainly have Derek Jeter and Mariano Rivera under contract for significant amounts as well. Joe Pawlikoski provides a very good description of the situation over at River Ave Blues, but essentially the situation boils down to this; in a few years, these players will all be getting tons of money for seasons in which most of them are already well over the wrong side of 30 and nearing 40 years old. While they may still put up big numbers, you simply can’t expect elite production from a 38 year old A-Rod or a 39 year old Jeter. By adding Lee, the Yankees would guarantee that they’ll be on the hook for upwards of $120 million dollars (and potentially a significant amount more) for 7 players in 2013, all of whom will be reaching the back end of their career. Unless they expect to continuously expand payroll from now until the end of time, this business model is simply unfeasible if the Yankees want to be competitive.

As the single most prized asset on the market, Lee will obviously have other suitors. However, if the Yankees aren’t able to continue to simply bid his price up, he may end up with a slightly less expensive contract than has been predicted for him, though he should still command five or possibly even six years, likely at $20 million per year or more. If the Nationals decide to truly go all-in for the prize of the offseason, it would be a move that could pay huge dividends both on the field and in the stands. Though they may be a dark horse in the war for the undisputed best free agent available, the Nationals’ Perfect Pickup is Cliff Lee.