Playoff Recap: 10/23

Only one game took place last night, but one was more than enough for me. With the Phillies a win away from forcing a deciding game 7 in Philadelphia, game 6 had this Giants fan on the edge of his seat from start to finish. Taking the hill for the Giants was lefty Jonathan Sanchez, while the Phillies countered with Roy Oswalt. Oswalt got the better of this matchup in game 2 of the series, and looked to do it again in last night’s game.

Much like game 2, Sanchez got wild early, and the Phillies made him pay. After getting Jimmy Rollins to begin the bottom of the first, Sanchez walked Placido Polanco. A wild pitch moved Polanco to second. Chase Utley doubled and Polanco scored the first run of the game. After a Ryan Howard single, Jayson Werth hit a sac fly to score Utley, and by the time Sanchez walked off the mound at the end of the first inning he was facing a 2-0 deficit.

Sanchez would make up for it to an extent by helping himself out in the third. Sanchez singled to lead off the inning. Andres Torres followed by drilling a ball to deep center. Shane Victorino broke back and attempted to make a backwards catch reminiscent of Willie Mays’ famous play against Vic Wertz in the 1954 World Series. Fortunately for Torres, Victorino is no Say Hey Kid, and despite trapping the ball against the centerfield fence momentarily, it fell to the ground. However, Sanchez had been holding between first and second base, preparing for a potential catch, so he was able to advance only to second and speedy Andres Torres was left with the longest single he’ll ever hit. Torres was most of the way to second by the time he realized Sanchez was occupying second and was forced to retreat to first by Sanchez’s presence, nearly being thrown out in the process. Freddy Sanchez then bunted both runners over, giving the Giants runners in scoring position with Aubrey Huff coming to the plate. Huff singled to center, bringing home Sanchez, but Victorino’s throw beat Torres to the plate by a mile for the second out of the inning. Huff alertly took second on the throw. This was huge, as Buster Posey followed Huff with a bouncing ball down the 3^rd base line. Posey hustled to put pressure on the play and Polanco’s throw went wide of Ryan Howard, allowing Huff to take home and tie the game. Pat Burrell flied out to left to end the inning. 

Sanchez then hit Utley in the next half-inning. Utley threw the ball back at Sanchez and benches cleared. Benches were warned but neither player was ejected. However, this would still be the end of Sanchez’s evening, as Jeremy Affeldt would enter the game and retire Howard, Werth, and Victorino in order to end the frame.

The game would remain deadlocked at 2 for several innings. Affeldt and game 4 starter Madison Bumgarner both pitched spectacularly for the Giants out of the bullpen, combining to allow 3 hits and 1 walk in the next 4 innings. Javier Lopez pitched a 1-2-3 7^th, and the Giants’ bullpen made up for Sanchez’s short outing with a very impressive showing. Meanwhile, Oswalt kept chugging along, going 6 strong frames.

The top of the 8^th would provide the decisive blow for San Francisco. With two down, Juan Uribe hit a fly ball to deep right. Jayson Werth went back… and back… and back… and looked up at the wall to watch the ball fall into the first row of seats. Though Uribe’s opposite field clout barely left the field of play, it sent all of San Francisco into a frenzy and quieted the normally boisterous Phillies fans packing Citizen’s Bank Park. 

Bruce Bochy would make an interesting tactical decision in the bottom of the inning, bringing in Giants’ ace Tim Lincecum to hold the 1-run lead. Lincecum struck out Jayson Werth to start the inning, but allowed back-to-back singles to Shane Victorino and Raul Ibañez. Bochy summoned Giants’ closer Brian Wilson for the 5-out save, and Wilson would make quick work of the inning. In a 1-1 count, Carlos Ruiz hit a line drive straight at Aubrey Huff. Victorino had taken off from second on the crack of the bat, and Huff lobbed the ball to second to double off the Flyin’ Hawaiian easily. 

The Giants would have back-to-back singles of their own in the top of the 9^th. With one out and runners on first and second, Aubrey Huff struck out to bring up Buster Posey. Because of an earlier double-switch, the pitcher’s spot was on deck. Bochy sent Pablo Sandoval to the on-deck circle, but as the Brad Lidge intentionally walked Posey, the Giants’ bearded closer emerged from the dugout. Bochy decided to keep the ball in the hand of his closer, who led the NL in saves this season, rather than using a pinch-hitter and possibly extending the Giants’ one-run advantage. Wilson grounded out, and the Phillies season would come down to their scoring one run in the bottom of the 9^th against the best closer in the National League. 

Wilson induced a groundout from leadoff hitter Ross Gload. He then walked Jimmy Rollins. Placido Polanco hit a ground ball to third and the Giants got the second out at second. Wilson then walked Chase Utley, bringing up Ryan Howard. Howard swung at strike one. Wilson threw two straight balls to put Howard ahead in the count. Howard took strike two and the Phils were down to their last strike. Wilson threw ball 3 to give Howard the full count, because Giants baseball is, after all, torture. Howard fouled off the sixth pitch of the at-bat. Then, Wilson threw a cutter on the outside corner, which Howard took. Home plate umpire Tom Hallion waited an agonizingly long time, which I can tell you firsthand seemed like at least a minute, with Philly and San Francisco fans holding their collective breaths, before throwing an emphatic punchout call to send San Francisco to their first World Series since 2002. 

Giants vs. Phillies:

WPA Leader: Brian Wilson (.458)

Wilson worked out of Lincecum’s jam in the 8^th to keep the score in San Francisco’s favor. He then shut down the Phillies (although, in signature fashion, he did make it quite interesting) in the 9^th to end the game, the series, and the Phillies’ season.

Biggest Plays:

I’ll give you three guesses, and the first two don’t count. Juan Uribe’s home run proved to be the game-winner, and the .280 WPA of that play will tell you just how crucial the home run was.

The Goat:

Carlos Ruiz took a -.245 WPA for his lineout, but that’s not quite fair to him, as he can’t be blamed for Victorino’s mental mistake in getting doubled off. Jonathan Sanchez was next-worst, with his short and wild outing giving him a -.204 WPA. Edgar Renteria’s 0 for 4 at the plate translated to a -.181 WPA. I really have no idea why Renteria still gets playing time. At all. Great clubhouse guy, I’m sure. He can be a great clubhouse guy from the bench. Ryan Howard rounds out the bottom 3 with his -.170 WPA, after a 2 for 5 day that included 3 strikeouts (including the game-ender with a runner in scoring position). No sympathy for Howard. You gotta at least take a swing at that pitch. Don’t go down with the bat on your shoulder.

Look for World Series previews starting tomorrow, as we’ll take a look at what to watch for with the Phillies at the plate and the Giants in the field and on the mound.

Playoff Recap: 10/22

Last night saw game 6 of the ALCS take place. After fighting to get the series back to Texas, the Yankees were looking to force a deciding game 7 and push the Rangers to the brink after being down 3-1. The Rangers, on the other hand, looked to punch the first World Series ticket in the history of their franchise. The men tasked with making that happen were Colby Lewis for the Rangers and Phil Hughes for the Bronx Bombers.

This game was never much of a contest, with the Yankees’ win expectancy peaking at 51.1% on the second play of the game. After Curtis Granderson’s walk, the Yankees were favored to win for the only time in this game.

In the bottom of the first, Elvis Andrus led off with a double. Michael Young followed with a strikeout, but Josh Hamilton would single to move Andrus to third. Vlad grounded out to second, scoring Andrus and giving the Rangers the lead.

The Yankees would tie the game momentarily in the 5th. After an A-Rod leadoff double, Lance Berkman hit a deep flyball to center to allow Rodriguez to tag. He scored on a Colby Lewis wild pitch and the game was tied at 1-1.

In the bottom half of the inning, the Rangers would strike back. Mitch Moreland started the inning with a single. After two groundouts, Moreland was at third with two out. Hughes intentionally walked Josh Hamilton, but the move backfired, as Vlad followed the walk with a double to score both Moreland and Hamilton. Nelson Cruz homered and the game went from tied to a 5-1 Rangers lead in the span of two at-bats. The Rangers would plate a 6th run on an Ian Kinsler sac fly in the 7th, and that was all she wrote. With a 6-1 victory, the Texas Rangers will be heading to the biggest stage in baseball- the World Series. Josh Hamilton, who hit 4 home runs in this series, was named MVP.

Let’s break it down.

Rangers vs. Yankees:
WPA Leader: Colby Lewis (.251)
Lewis took the ball in this huge contest and responded spectacularly, pitching 8 innings and giving up a lone run on 3 hits and 3 walks and striking out 7. If Lewis and CJ Wilson can continue to put up strong starts behind ace Cliff Lee, the Rangers will be a very tough team to beat. Leading all hitters was Vladimir Guerrero’s .195 WPA. Guerrero only went 1 for 4, but he took an RBI on his first groundout and his 2-run double really cracked this game open in Texas’ favor.

Biggest Plays:
Guerrero’s double carried a .225 WPA and took place in a 2.36 LI situation. By breaking the tie with two outs and allowing the Rangers to post their big inning, Guerrero had a huge part in sending the Rangers to the series. Nelson Cruz’s home run to follow Guerrero was the second biggest swing of the game, with a .120 WPA.

The Goat:
Phil Hughes, from whom the Yankees needed a strong outing to force a game 7, did not deliver, as his -.126 WPA shows. Hughes was responsible for 4 runs in only 4.2 innings, allowing 4 hits and 4 walks while striking out only 3.

Playoff Recap: 10/21

Last night was the Giants’ only chance to clinch the NLCS in San Francisco before the series moves the Philly for games 6 and 7. It also featured round two of the Lincecum-Halladay matchup, after the mop-haired Giants’ ace beat the head of Philly’s rotation in game 1. 

The Giants jumped on the board first. Andres Torres drew a leadoff walk from Halladay, which Freddy Sanchez followed with a single up the middle to move Torres to third. Torres scored on a ground ball to second by Buster Posey, and the Giants were up 1-0. The ball could have been a double play, but Utley attempted to tag Sanchez and Sanchez was able to evade the tag for long enough to ensure that only one out could be recorded.

The Phillies would get back the run and more in the 3^rd. After an Ibañez leadoff single, Lincecum hit Carlos Ruiz to put runners on first and second with nobody out and Halladay coming up. Halladay laid down a sacrifice bunt, which hit the plate and dribbled foul before Buster Posey picked it up. However, Posey’s body blocked home plate ump Jeff Nelson’s view of the ball, and he called it a fair ball. Posey threw to third, and could have had Ibañez if Pablo Sandoval had been on the base. He wasn’t but Halladay (who had a better view of the ball than anyone) had not been running on the foul bunt, so Sandoval threw him out at first. Needless to say, it was an unorthodox sac bunt. Shane Victorino then grounded a ball at Aubrey Huff, who booted it. The ball bounced all the way into center, allowing both runners to score and Victorino to end up at second. A Placido Polanco single later, the game was 3-1, and the inning would end with that scoreline intact. 

The Giants clawed back into the game in the 4^th. After Halladay induced a grounder from Posey for the first out of the inning, Pat Burrell and Cody Ross hit back-to-back doubles to make the score 3-2. Pablo Sandoval then flew out to right, and Ross made a huge mental mistake by trying to tag and making the last out of the inning at third. By my count, that’s the first play in this series on which he hasn’t been spectacular. 

That would be the end of the scoring until the top of the 9^th, when Jayson Werth provided an insurance run by blasting a home run over the high wall in right to give the Phillies an insurance run. Brad Lidge shut the door, and the game ended 4-2, with game 6 set for tomorrow in Philly.

Let’s break it down.

Giants vs. Phillies

WPA Leader: Andres Torres (.138)

Torres went 2 for 3 with a walk and scored the Giants’ first run. Ryan Madson was a close second, at .134, as he struck out the side in the 8^th to shut down the heart of the Giants’ order with just one run still between the teams. Halladay, who spent most of the evening pitching through an injured groin, was the third most valuable player of this game, with a .128 WPA. 

Biggest Plays: 

Aubrey Huff’s two-run error on Victorino’s grounder was huge, with a .155 WPA. The play allowed the Phillies to take the lead and put Victorino on second with only one out. 

The Goat:

Aubrey Huff was a -.211 at the plate, going 0 for 4 and stranding 4 runners by ending 3 different innings. He also committed the .155 WPA error, bringing his total to a dreadful -.366.

Playoff Recap: 10/20

Last night saw ALCS game 5 and NLCS game 4 take place. CJ Wilson took the mound for the Rangers, while Joe Girardi sent CC Sabathia to try to stave off elimination and get the series back to Texas. 

In San Francisco, the Giants and Phillies ran out their fourth starters, with rookie Madison Bumgarner toeing the rubber for the Giants and Joe Blanton opposing him.

The Yankees ran away with game 5, beginning the scoring in the second frame. After Wilson walked two of the first three batters, Jorge Posada and Curtis Granderson singled. A Jeff Francoeur error later, the Yankees had jumped out to a 3-0 lead. 

Back to back home runs by Swisher and Cano in the third made the game 5-0, and Texas would mount only a timid comeback on a solo shot by Matt Treanor. They’d scrape another run across, but the Yankees scored two more on a Berkman sac fly and a 9^th-inning home run by Curtis Granderson gave this game a final scoreline of 7-2 Yankees. With the series now at 3-2, it would take a heck of an effort from the Bronx Bombers to get back into the World Series and defend their championship, but it’s not as unlikely as it was 24 hours ago.

San Francisco hosted a back-and-forth game that was a rollercoaster ride for Phillies and Giants fans alike. The win expectancy chart for the game should give you an idea of how intense this game really was.

The Giants struck first, as Freddy Sanchez doubled in the first and advanced to third after two wild pitches by Blanton. Buster Posey, who had been having a postseason to forget until this game, singled him home, making this a 1-0 game. Posey would drive home the next run as well, as with two outs in the third, Aubrey Huff singled. Posey hit a ball to the wall in left-center, and the Giants were up 2-0.

The Phils would get it back in the 5^th, as Francisco and Ruiz had back to back singles to start the inning. Blanton bunted them to second and third before Victorino singled to center. Francisco scored easily, but Aaron Rowand came up throwing. Buster Posey made a spectacular play to tag Ruiz coming home and the Giants momentarily maintained their lead. Chase Utley singled, and Bumgarner’s evening was over. Santiago Casilla came in and promptly allowed a two-run double to Placido Polanco. Casilla intentionally walked Ryan Howard before plunking Jayson Werth to load the bases. Casilla then threw a wild pitch that got by Posey, scoring Polanco and putting runners on second and third before striking out Jimmy Rollins to end the inning. However, the damage had been done, and the Phillies were up 4-2.

The Giants got one back the next inning, as Andres Torres took a leadoff walk. He moved to second on a Renteria grounder and eventually scored on a single by Aubrey Huff to make this a 4-3 game. Blanton came out, while Contreras struck out Buster Posey to end the inning. They would take the lead in the next inning, as Pat Burrell’s leadoff walk was followed by a Cody Ross double. Another day, another huge hit from Cody Ross. Business as usual. Yawn. Pablo Sandoval doubled to score both runners, making this a 5-4 game.

The Phillies tied it up in the 8^th. Ryan Howard and Jayson Werth hit back to back doubles to lead off the inning and tie the contest at 5, but the Phillies could not convert in a runner on second, no out situation. The Giants had a quick bottom of the 8^th, and the Phillies went 1-2-3 in the 9^th against Giants’ closer Brian Wilson.

The Phillies sent out Roy Oswalt to pitch the bottom of the 9^th and attempt to send the game into extras. Oswalt induced a flyout from Freddy Sanchez to lead off. Aubrey Huff grounded a ball to the right side of the infield, but Ryan Howard was guarding the line to prevent a possible double and could not get back toward the center of the diamond to field the ball. After a spectacular at-bat, Buster Posey lined a single into right, making it first and third with one out. Juan Uribe’s fly ball to deep left gave Francisco no chance to get Huff at home, and the Giants went wild on the diamond as they moved within one win of the World Series. 

Let’s check it out.

Yankees vs. Rangers:

WPA Leader: CC Sabathia (.177)

Carsten Charles did his job as the Yanks’ ace, going six innings and allowing two runs while striking out 7. His performance extended this series at least one game. Now he just needs some help from his teammates in order to start game 1 of the World Series for the second season in a row.

Biggest Plays: 

Curtis Granderson’s single and Jeff Francoeur’s error, throwing away the ball to allow Posada to score, put up a .138 WPA, turning this from a manageable 1-0 lead to a 3-0 game and giving the Yankees a big early advantage.

The Goat:

CJ Wilson did not pitch well. He put up a -.269 WPA, giving up 6 runs (5 earned) in five innings of work. The Rangers will have to hope that Colby Lewis comes out and performs a little better in the next game of the series, because they’d really like to avoid having to pitch Cliff Lee in a potential game 7 (and preventing him from opening the World Series).

Giants vs. Phillies:

WPA Leader: Buster Posey (.401)

Posey had a real breakout game, which Giants fans will hope bodes well for future playoff performances. He’d been 1 for 11 in the first three games in this series, but in game 4 he finished with a 4 for 5 line, including two doubles. Honorable mention goes to Placido Polanco (.337) collected a huge portion of his on one play, as we’ll discuss in a bit, and Cody Ross put up a .253, bringing him to .723 total WPA this series to lead all players.

Biggest Plays:

Polanco’s two-run double with two down in the 5^th inning provided a huge .292 win expectancy swing for the Phillies. The hit came in a critical situation (2.44 LI) and gave the Phillies the lead, at least for a while. Jayson Werth’s double to score Ryan Howard and tie the game in the 8^th put up a .245 WPA, while Posey’s huge 9^th-inning single and Ross’s 6^th-inning double each added .192 to the Giants’ chances of victory.

The Goat: 

Roy Oswalt, tasked with shutting down the Giants in the 9^th and sending the game into extras, didn’t get his job done. Oswalt went 0.2 innings, allowing two hits and the game-winning sacrifice fly. He ended up with a -.371 WPA. Several other relievers were also ineffective, with Santiago Casilla giving the Giants a -.337 in 1.1 innings and Chad Durbin putting up a -.329 in one frame.

Playoff Recap: 10/19

Two games took place last night, with AJ Burnett and the Yankees trying to dig out of a 2-1 hole against Tommy Hunter and the Rangers, and Matt Cain going up against Cole Hamels looking to take the pivotal game 3 in a 1-1 series. In the past league championship series that have been tied at one, the winner of game 3 has won the series 19 of 27 times. 

In the Giants’ game, Matt Cain was on cruise control, looking dominant in going 7 scoreless while giving up only 2 hits and 3 walks. Cain struck out five for his second stellar start of the postseason. He’s now pitched 13.2 innings and hasn’t given up an earned run yet.

The Giants provided all the support Cain would need in the 4^th. Edgar Renteria singled to lead off the inning, the Giants’ first hit off of Cole Hamels. Freddy Sanchez bunted Renteria over to second, but Buster Posey’s rough postseason continued as he followed Sanchez with a strikeout. With two down and a man on second, Pat Burrell walked, bringing up Cody Ross. Ross, as any fan who’s been watching this series knows, is as locked in as any player this game has ever seen, and he continued his epic postseason by lining an RBI single to left, putting men on first and third for Aubrey Huff. Huff grounded a ball to Chase Utley’s left. Utley dove and got a piece of the ball but could not come up with it as it rolled into right for a base hit to make the game 2-0. 

The Giants would extend the lead in the next inning, as Aaron Rowand doubled to left to lead off the frame. Matt Cain and Edgar Renteria could not advance Rowand, but Sanchez hit a hard liner that took a short hop in front of Chase Utley. Utley booted the ball, allowing Rowand to score. The play was ruled a hit, but it’s a ball Utley really had to do better on. At the very least, he has to keep the ball in front of him and prevent Rowand from coming home. Hamels then struck out Posey for the second straight time to end the inning.

That’s how the game would end, as Cain went 7 and Javier Lopez and Brian Wilson took the 8^th and 9^th to complete the shutout. 

In the late game, the Yankees struck first, as Robinson Cano hit a solo shot to the first row of the rightfield bleachers. Nelson Cruz looked like he might have a shot to make a play on the ball, but he was interfered with by several Yankee fans. However, the ball looked to be over the fence, and the play was not reviewed by the umpires. Nick Swisher then struck out, sending Lance Berkman to the plate. Berkman hit a bomb to right field that was ruled a home run. However, the play was reviewed immediately and was overturned, as the ball clearly hooked just foul. The Yankees, however, held their 1-0 lead. 

The Rangers would strike back with two runs in the top of the third. Elvis Andrus hit an RBI groundout with runners on second and third, and Michael Young followed with an RBI single to take a 2-1 lead. 

The Yankees tied it back up in the bottom of the inning. After two quick outs, Derek Jeter hit a triple off the centerfield wall and Curtis Granderson drove him in with a single to make it 2-2.

They would take the lead in the bottom of the 4^th, as the Yankees loaded the bases with one out. Tommy Hunter’s day ended, with Derek Holland stepping in to face Brett Gardner. Gardner hit a ground ball to short, which Elvis Andrus made a spectacular play on to get the out at third and avoid the big inning. Holland struck out Francisco Cervelli to end the inning with the Yankees up 3-2.

Though there wasn’t any scoring, I figure I should mention that Mark Teixeira injured his hamstring running out a forceout in the fifth inning. Teixeira has been removed from the playoff roster, meaning we won’t be seeing him on a diamond until Spring Training. 

The Rangers would tag Burnett for another 3 runs in the top of the 6^th. With Nelson Cruz on second, the Yankees gave David Murphy a free pass with Bengie Molina on deck. Molina made them pay with a 3-run bomb, putting the Rangers up 5-3.

They’d tack on another five before the end of the game on two homers by Josh Hamilton and one from Cruz. Ian Kinsler had an RBI single and the Rangers are now one win away from their franchise’s first World Series appearance.

Let’s see it by the numbers.

Giants vs. Phillies:

WPA Leader: Matt Cain (.349)

As stated before, Cain had his second great outing of the playoffs. For all the talk about potential matchup problems for the Giants in the rotations, Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain have stacked up to Halladay and Hamels just fine thus far. Cody Ross led all hitters with a .123 WPA, the second time he’s been the most valuable hitter in this series and the fourth straight game in which he’s led all Giants batters in WPA.

Biggest Plays: 

Cody Ross’ two-out single to score the first run of the game was good for .144 WPA. Huff’s single to follow Ross was the second biggest play, with a .104. Sanchez’s liner to Utley was third, with the run-scoring play adding .070 to the Giants’ win expectancy.

The Goat: 

Raul Ibañez went 0 for 4, striking out twice and grounding into the game-ending double play against Giants closer Brian Wilson. Ibañez has had a brutal series, and he’s now 0 for 11 with 5 strikeouts against the Giants in this matchup.

Rangers vs. Yankees:

WPA Leader: Bengie Molina (.490)

Molina’s big home run helped him to a gaudy WPA total, turning the tide of this game in the Rangers’ favor. Molina went 3 for 4 and was plunked as well, which isn’t surprising considering he’s a relatively large target.

Biggest Plays:

Molina’s 3-run jack trumped every other play in this game, with a .396 WPA. It’s hard to overstate the importance of this home run, as it took place in the third most critical moment of this contest (2.64 LI).

The Goat:

AJ Burnett put up a -.293 WPA allowing 5 runs in 6 innings on 6 hits and 3 walks. Burnett’s deterioration this season has been ugly to watch, as his 1.3 WAR in 186.2 innings this season is his worst total in a full season since he entered the league.