tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post7490380163916503205..comments2023-05-02T08:45:36.632-07:00Comments on Saber By The Bay: NL Rookie of the Year: What It Should Be, What It Will BeDoug Wachterhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-74131204568702278442010-09-26T17:29:13.428-07:002010-09-26T17:29:13.428-07:00Walker's been fantastic... I honestly think he...Walker's been fantastic... I honestly think he would be in the AL ROY conversation if he was on an AL team. However, with all the great candidates in the NL this year, I don't think he's been good enough to stand out. That said, there's certainly an argument to be made for him to at least get some votes, and he's got a chance to go on to a hugely productive career, as do several of the Pirates' young core.<br /><br />Heyward has certainly missed some time, but he'll end up with more games in the bigs than pretty much anybody on this list. Playing a full season certainly would've helped him, but I don't know that his trip to the DL will hurt his chances all that much. <br /><br />You're absolutely right about Posey, as well. Fangraphs WAR doesn't include catcher defense outside of how they do against the running game, so while it's not factored in, Posey passes the eye test with flying colors when it comes to his receiving and game-calling skills.<br /><br />Garcia has gotten somewhat lucky with HR/FB (league average is usually around 11 or 12 percent), but you also have to consider the fact that St. Louis' park factor for home runs in 2010 is .784. Doesn't explain everything, and he's certainly gotten some lucky breaks, but it's at a somewhat reasonable level. Getting shut down will hurt him in the award race, but it's more because they're not playing for anything... sounds like they may have considered giving him one more start.Doug Wachterhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03437671866499148637noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-75888620326478683062010-09-26T00:22:28.161-07:002010-09-26T00:22:28.161-07:00I would say that Garcia is hugely lucky in the HR ...I would say that Garcia is hugely lucky in the HR department, something in the 7% range when most pitchers are at 10%, is pretty lucky to me. Plus, he's been shut down.<br /><br />Heyward, I would note that while he started the season, he also missed about 3 weeks on the DL. He's going to end up around 140 games played, which is good, but not a full season.<br /><br />Posey, I would note, to amplify on your point about his defense, his WAR shows almost nothing above average in terms of defense. If you add 0.5 to 1.0 WAR for his defense, he would be above Heyward in WAR despite playing many less games.<br /><br />Nice article, I obviously agree with you, and don't think that being a Giants fan has to do with it, it's just the numbers right now. That plus Posey is doing it as the clean-up hitter for the Giants while Heyward is the 2nd place hitter for the Braves. And if Heyward don't watch out, Posey will pass him in HR soon.obsessivegiantscompulsivehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11362706004246875823noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-6322618932246523170.post-44724083072454600732010-09-24T18:54:03.794-07:002010-09-24T18:54:03.794-07:00No mention of Neil Walker at all? Obviously he is ...No mention of Neil Walker at all? Obviously he is on a losing team, but he has put up some really good numbers this season. Also, what do you think of his prospects past this season?<br /><br />Thanks and great post!Bryan Fyalkowskihttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08513651076497764720noreply@blogger.com